[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT AS OF 0600 UTC N OF 29.5N W OF 75W
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO
22N79W. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE BY
1200 UTC THIS MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 1200 UTC N OF 28.5N WITHIN
120 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 31N70W
TO 22N79W. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL SHIFT EAST WITH THE FRONT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
BELOW GALE FORCE BY 0000 UTC FRIDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 6N19W TO WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 3S42W AT THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 250 NM OF THE ITCZ WEST OF
21W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED NORTH OF THE
EQUATOR AND EAST OF 3W TO THE WEST AFRICAN COAST.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 29N96W.
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF BEHIND A
STRONG FRONT WHICH NOW EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT COVER THE GULF E OF
91W. NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT COVER THE SW GULF. ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT IS OVER THE NW GULF NEARER TO THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
OVER THE GULF THROUGH TODAY. RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
GULF AS THE HIGH SLIDES OVER THE SE US ON FRIDAY. THIS MAY BRING
SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN GULF ON FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN US...THE EASTERN
GULF...FL...AND THE W ATLC. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC TO CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO THE
YUCATAN COAST NEAR 19N88W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
20N83W TO THE HONDURAS COAST NEAR 16N85W. SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ANYWHERE WITHIN 100 NM SW OF THE TROUGH
TO THE COLD FRONT. NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE N OF THE COLD
FRONT. N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND
SURFACE TROUGH. VARIABLE WINDS UNDER 5 KT ARE WITHIN 100 NM SE
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. 15 TO 20 KT TRADE WINDS COVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING PUERTO
RICO...JAMAICA...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SE TO E CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HONDURAS TODAY WITH SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED CONVECTION. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE INTO
A TROUGH OR SHEAR LINE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ISLAND. SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER
HISPANIOLA TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY AS THE DISSIPATING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE NEAR OR OVER THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN US...THE EASTERN
GULF...FL...AND THE W ATLC. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A STRONG COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC FROM 32N69W ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR 22N79W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING SE OF THE FRONT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED WITHIN 170 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM SE OF THE
FRONT S OF 25N. FARTHER EAST...A STRONG 1036 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE AZORES NEAR 38N26W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
TO THE GREATER ANTILLES. TRADEWINDS ARE GENERALLY 10-20 KT
ACROSS THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS...THE ATLC
COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM 32N62W TO EASTERN CUBA WITH A
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION.
AT THE SAME TIME...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF OF THE
SE UNITED STATES COAST AND ENHANCE THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND
IT. ON FRIDAY...THE TWO FRONTS SHOULD MERGE AND CONTINUE
MOVING EASTWARD WITH THE TAIL OF THE FRONT REACHING HISPANIOLA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net