[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131050
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 09N13W THEN ALONG 04N15W TO 01N19W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR
01N20W AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N30W TO 02N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
AND THE ITCZ E OF 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF AND
PROVIDES NORTHERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT ACCORDING TO LATEST
SCATTEROMETER DATA. ALOFT...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS SW TO A BASE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA SUPPORTS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING SOUTHERN FLORIDA
SW TO 23N90W TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL-EASTERN MEXICO NEAR 22N97W.
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT
MODERATE MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC WATERS ACROSS THE GULF.
HOWEVER...DRY AIR DOMINATES AT MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS...WHICH IS
SUPPORTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. THE FRONT WILL
EXIT THE BASIN LATER TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF
THE AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM WHICH A COLD FRONTS EXTENDS ALONG
30N45W SW TO A TAIL E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N60W. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND A FORMER
SURFACE TROUGH W OF THE FRONT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE N-NE CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
HISPANIOLA...THE MONA PASSAGE...PUERTO RICO...VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
LEEWARD ISLANDS. EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN AND SW CARIBBEAN...DEEP
LAYER DRY AIR DOMINATES ELSEWHERE...WHICH CONTINUE TO FAVOR FAIR
WEATHER. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGES ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICA
COASTLINE...THUS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75
NM OF IT. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE TRADES OF 5 TO 15 KT
DOMINATING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN AND NORTHERLY FLOW OF
10 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE NW AND SW CARIBBEAN...HIGHEST IN THE SW
BASIN. ALOFT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS. THE COLD FRONT IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY
WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE BY LATE SAT. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IN NW COLOMBIA TO CENTRAL HISPANIOLA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR COVERS THE ISLAND...HINDERING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...LINGERING SHALLOW
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SUPPORTS
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE
EASTERN CONUS SW TO A BASE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUPPORTS A
WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM 30N70W SW
TO 25N80W...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TO NEAR
TAMPICO MEXICO. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT DUE TO DEEP
LAYER DRY AIR IN THE SW N ATLC. A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM WHICH A COLD FRONTS
EXTENDS ALONG 30N45W SW TO 22N51W AND TAIL E OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 16N60W. SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC N OF 18N BEING ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR
33N26W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICT A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BEING
ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 23N33W TO 17N37W. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED
FROM THE ITCZ CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE
SW N ATLC WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 32N64W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO
W CUBA BY FRI NIGHT THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM NEAR 32N58W
ALONG 26N65W TO SE BAHAMAS EARLY SAT AND DISSIPATE SUN. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE W ATLC SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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