[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 08N13W THEN ALONG 05N14W TO 02N19W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR
02N20W AND CONTINUES ALONG 02N37W TO 01S51W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
AND THE ITCZ E OF 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF AND
PROVIDES NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT ACCORDING TO LATEST
SCATTEROMETER DATA. ALOFT...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS SW TO A BASE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE SUPPORTS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL FLORIDA SW
TO 28N82W 26N90W TO NE MEXICO NEAR 24N98W. SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY WIND FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT MODERATE MOISTURE
FROM THE EPAC WATERS ACROSS THE GULF. HOWEVER...DRY AIR
DOMINATES AT MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS...WHICH IS SUPPORTING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN AND THE REMAINDER FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF
THE AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM WHICH A COLD FRONTS EXTENDS ALONG
30N47W SW TO A TAIL OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N61W.
TROUGHING ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC WITH TAIL REACHING THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM 18N63W TO 18N65W.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE BOUNDARIES SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE MONA
PASSAGE...PUERTO RICO...VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NORTHERN LESSER
ANTILLES. EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN AND SW CARIBBEAN...DEEP LAYER
DRY AIR DOMINATES...WHICH FAVORS FAIR WEATHER. SCATTEROMETER
DATA INDICATE TRADES OF 5 TO 10 KT DOMINATING THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BASIN AND NORTHERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE NW
AND SW CARIBBEAN. ALOFT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS. THE GULF
OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN FRI WHERE
IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE BY LATE SAT.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR COVERS THE ISLAND...HINDERING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...LINGERING SHALLOW
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SUPPORTS
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE
EASTERN CONUS SW TO A BASE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUPPORTS A
WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM 30N78W SW
TO 29N81W...ACROSS NORTHERN-CENTRAL FLORIDA SW TO NE MEXICO. NO
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER
DRY AIR. A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N
OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM WHICH A COLD FRONTS EXTENDS ALONG
30N47W SW TO 21N52W TO A TAIL OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
16N61W. TROUGHING ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM
31N47W SW TO 22N56W TO THE NE CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N65W. SHALLOW
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC N OF 18N BEING
ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 33N26W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE
ITCZ CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC
WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 32N64W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO W CUBA BY
FRI NIGHT THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM NEAR 32N58W ALONG 26N65W
TO SE BAHAMAS EARLY SAT AND DISSIPATE SUN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE W ATLC SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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