[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 07N12W TO 01N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 01N20W AND CONTINUES
TO 00N30W TO 02N40W THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N49W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-04N BETWEEN 18W-
36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA AT 26N80W TO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 23N90W TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO AT
22N98W. THE FRONT IS VOID OF CONVECTION. A 1030 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER N LOUISIANA AT 32N92W. 10-15 KT NE WINDS ARE OVER
THE GULF N OF FRONT PRODUCING ADDITIONAL COLD AIR ADVECTION. 10
KT NE WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE
FRONT TO BE DISSIPATING FROM W CUBA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 17N60W TO
MONTSERRAT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 15 NM OF THE FRONT. 15-
20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. 15-20
KT EASTERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...THE GULF OF HONDURAS...
HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS SW FLOW IS OVER
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE OVER N COLOMBIA DUE TO
A LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH. ALSO EXPECT A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
TO EXTEND FROM W CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR COVERS THE ISLAND...HINDERING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...LINGERING SHALLOW
MOISTURE SUPPORTS CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N69W TO S FLORIDA AT
26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF FRONT N OF 27N.
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N44W TO 20N54W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 17N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 35N23W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N W OF 60W SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
19N30W. EXPECT THE TWO COLD FRONTS TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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