[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102334
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A DEEPENING LOW WITH COLD FRONT THROUGH 31N71W TO 24N71W TO
20N75W WILL PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC N OF
29.5N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W WITH SEAS 10-15 FT BEGINNING TONIGHT.
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THESE FEATURES AS THEY CONTINUE
MOVING E ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
06N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N17W TO 02N31W TO 01S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 15W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL GULF
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
25N95W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. TO
THE SE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF
FROM 24N81W TO 24N89W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO
THIS BOUNDARY. A SLIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE W
GULF MAINLY W OF 91W WHILE A SLIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHERLY FLOW IS
OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA AND LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS THE E GULF E OF 91W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E EXITING THE AREA. A RIDGE
AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA AND THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 21N76W TO
19N85W. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 20N73W TO 16N87W.
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...HAITI...JAMAICA AND THEIR
ADJACENT CARIBBEAN WATERS W OF 75W. A SW FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS
THE BASIN WHICH IS PUSHING MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC INTO THE AREA
AND HENCE ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE GREATER AND LESSER
ANTILLES. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT AND
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF WITH A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS BEHIND IT.

...HISPANIOLA...

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ENHANCING
CONVECTION ACROSS HAITI AND W DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT FOR
THIS TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH CONVECTION. AFTER THIS...A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE
THROUGH THE ISLAND WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A PAIR OF
FRONTAL SYSTEMS W OF 73W. THE FIRST ONE IS A STATIONARY FRONT
FROM 33N75W TO 30N74W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING TO 27N76W TO 24N81W THEN INTO THE S GULF. AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM IS A 994 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N73W. ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 28N73W TO 21N76W
THEN INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
31N70W TO 20N73W AND INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
N OF 25N BETWEEN 55W-68W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
PROXIMITY OF THESE FRONTS AND TROUGH AND A GALE WARNING WILL BE
IN EFFECT TONIGHT. FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. TO THE E...A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 28N36W WITH ITS COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO 22N40W TO
20N48W. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM THIS POINT TO 22N58W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW N OF 26N
BETWEEN 29W-33W. THE REMNANTS OF A SURFACE LOW ARE NOW A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 31N17W TO
26N19W.  OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE PAIR OF FRONTS
AND SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE MOVING E
PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS. THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL MOVE SE WHILE WEAKENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net