[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND FAR WESTERN SW NORTH ATLC SUPPORTS A 1001 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 29N76W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE N
OF 30N ON TUESDAY. AS THE LOW DEEPENS...PRESSURE GRADIENT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY
11/0000 UTC WEST OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
05N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N17W TO 02N30W TO 03N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 02N06W TO
02N28W...AND WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 02N28W TO
04N49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EAST FROM FL INTO THE W ATLANTIC WITH A BASE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS OFF THE SE US COAST. THE NORTHERNMOST LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 33N77W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL FL NEAR 28N82W AND OVER THE GULF TO 25N88W TO 26N94W.
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS BEST DEPICTED BY
A DROP IN DEWPOINTS IN SURFACE OBS. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KT COVER THE EASTERN GULF. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF 1017 MB
COVERS THE WESTERN GULF. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 5 TO 15 KT COVERS
THE W GULF AROUND THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE GULF BASIN. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED OVER THE GULF ON TUESDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER. THIS RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GULF AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

TROUGHING OVER FL/SW ATLANTIC/AND NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORT A 1001 MB
SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N76W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA THEN
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 20N85W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N72W TO 20N75W TO 17N83W. NO CONVECTION
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING
JAMAICA. NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT COVER THE CARIBBEAN NW OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. SE TO E WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT COVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
BECOME ABSORBED BY THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AS THE FRONT MOVES
E OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE ISLAND IS
DRAWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SHOWERS OVER HAITI TODAY. THIS
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY EASTWARD
TOWARD THE ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ISLAND
TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
FAR WESTERN SW NORTH ATLC REGION SUPPORTS A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS OFF THE SE US COAST. THE NORTHERNMOST LOW OF 1000 MB IS
CENTERED NEAR 33N77W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO CENTRAL
FL NEAR 28N81W. THE SOUTHERNMOST LOW OF 1001 MB IS CENTERED NEAR
29N76W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
NEAR 25N77W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N72W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BEAR 23N74W
TO W CUBA NEAR 20N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITH 200 NM OF THE SURFACE LOWS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM
E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. FARTHER EAST...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 30N73W TO 26N65W. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N TO 31N BETWEEN
58W AND 66W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 35W
SUPPORTS A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 29N37W WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 23N40W TO 20N50W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS
TO A SHEAR LINE TO 21N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
26N TO 31N BETWEEN 30W AND 34W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 50 NM OF THE COLD FRONT AND SHEAR LINE. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N17W TO 27N19W. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THE LOWS AND COLD FRONTS OVER THE SW N ATLANTIC
WILL MERGE AND INTENSIFY. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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