[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Tue Feb 10 23:50:18 CST 2015


AXNT20 KNHC 110549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A DEEPENING LOW ANALYZED AT 989 MB CENTERED NEAR 33N72W EXTENDS
INFLUENCE INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-
80W. WAVES OF ENERGY CONTINUE TO ROTATE CYCLONICALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW AS A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS AND A PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN THE OVERALL STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING GENERALLY N OF 29N
BETWEEN 75W-80W...AND THIS AREA WILL TRANSLATE E-SE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES E-NE.
SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N18W TO
01N29W TO 03N39W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 09W-14W...AND FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 24W-31W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 15W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
NW TO OVER NORTH TEXAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY
AND STABLE AIR ALOFT WHICH IS RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A
SURFACE RIDGE FURTHER SUPPORTS THE OVERALL SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT
ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N92W. THE SURFACE
RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT IS
FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST EARLY
THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS EVENING WITH A PAIR OF COLD FRONT ANALYZED
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE BASE OF MID-LEVEL TROUGHING N
OF 18N BETWEEN 68W-80W. BOTH FRONTS EXTEND INTO A DEEPENING AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION ANALYZED OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. WHILE THE FRONTS LACK SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE...A LEADING PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM
HISPANIOLA SW TO NE NICARAGUA CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THE
PRIMARY WIND SHIFT AND AREA OF PRECIPITATION WITH ISOLATED LOW-
TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE BOUNDARY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE FRONTAL TROUGHING WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW E OF 70W...AND
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW W OF 70W. THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THURSDAY...FINALLY EXITING THE NE
CARIBBEAN WATERS BY LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE ISLAND
PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS FROM 17N-22N
BETWEEN 67W-75W...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THIS
TROUGHING IS FOLLOWED BY THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF RELATIVELY
BENIGN COLD FRONTS TO THE NW...HOWEVER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
REMAIN IN THE MODERATE TO FRESH RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS THE TROUGHING AND BOUNDARIES PASS TO THE EAST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CENTERED NEAR 33N72W THAT SUPPORTS A COMPLEX AND LARGE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS FOCUSED ON A 989 MB
LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N73W. A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS EXTEND INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA...THE EASTERN-MOST FRONT FROM 32N68W TO 25N70W
TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N75W...AND THE WESTERN-MOST FRONT FROM
32N74W TO 29N73W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. WHILE THE FRONTS
PRIMARILY REPRESENT SURGES OF STRONG WINDS BEHIND THEM AND
REMAIN RELATIVELY PRECIPITATION-FREE...A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 30N66W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W AND IS
PROVIDING FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
OCCURRING FROM 23N-33N BETWEEN 55W-67W...AND WITHIN 150 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 23N. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE E-NE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD
SHIFTING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 39N12W TO A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE NEAR 26N31W THAT SUPPORTS A WEAKENING 1013 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 28N35W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER
TO 26N33W TO 20N45W THEN WESTWARD AS A SHEAR LINE TO 22N57W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN
27W-32W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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