[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091146
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON FEB 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
05N13W TO 03N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 03N17W TO 01N32W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 49W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 12W AND 39W AND WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 42W AND 49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
EXTENDING FROM OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N81W SW
TO 19N96W. THIS TROUGHING COINCIDES WITH WEAKER MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE SE GULF WATERS AND SUPPORTS A SHALLOW 1014 MB
LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N88W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N89W
THROUGH THE LOW CENTER SE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO ANOTHER
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH AXIS
IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR LOW-TOPPED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS OCCURRING EAST OF A LINE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA
REGION SE TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA NEAR 22N85W. THE SHOWER AND
TSTMS ACTIVITY STRETCHES TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND STRAITS. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
IS CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO NEAR 27N106W THAT SUPPORTS OVERALL
DRY AND STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WITH THE STRONGEST DRYING NOTED OVER THE SW GULF. THE
STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
FAIR CONDITIONS W OF 89W...AND MOST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE MOST OF
THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
TROUGHING DRIFTING EASTWARD WITH POSSIBLE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS BY
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AS THE LOW SHIFTS INTO THE ATLC BY
TUESDAY...THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE GULF BY WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES OVER
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER AT
THE SURFACE...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL E OF 82W WITH A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE 1013 MB
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N84W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE LOW CENTER TO 15N83W. LOW-TOPPED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 19N
BETWEEN 77W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS...INCLUDING INLAND AREAS
OF CUBA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAILS OFF TO THE EAST...HOWEVER
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE EASTERLY TRADES N OF 15N E OF 74W. LOOKING AHEAD...AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SKIRT THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS...ACROSS
CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING WITH IT INCREASED PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION.

...HISPANIOLA...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
THE ISLAND FROM 20N72W TO 20N60W AND BEYOND PROVIDING FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING N OF 17N BETWEEN 67W AND 74W AND
AREAS NORTH OF THE ISLAND WITHIN THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGH LATE
MONDAY...WHILE AN AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS INTRODUCES A
FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE ISLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY INCREASING
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FAIRLY BROAD AND WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A
BROAD AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 70W AND 84W...INCLUDING
MOST OF CUBA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND THE BAHAMAS. WHILE
STILL IN THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT STAGES...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA
CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT WILL
SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AND DEVELOP INTO A COMPLEX
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM OFFSHORE OF THE EAST-
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO THE CAROLINAS. FARTHER
EAST...ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED
IN THE VICINITY OF 32N46W THAT SUPPORTS A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 32N43W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
25N48W TO 21N58W AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO 20N72W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 24N BETWEEN 35W AND 45W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE COLD AND STATIONARY FRONTS S OF 24N. OTHERWISE...A
1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N63W
AND A WEAKENING 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 22N43W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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