[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON FEB 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N13W TO
03N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 15W AND 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
EXTENDING FROM OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N81W SW
TO 20N96W. THIS TROUGHING COINCIDES WITH WEAKER MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE SE GULF WATERS AND SUPPORTS A SHALLOW 1014 MB
LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N88W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N88W
THROUGH THE LOW CENTER SE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO ANOTHER
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH AXIS
IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR LOW-TOPPED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS OCCURRING EAST OF A LINE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA
REGION SW TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA NEAR 22N85W. THE SHOWER AND
TSTMS ACTIVITY STRETCHES TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO NEAR 27N109W THAT
SUPPORTS OVERALL DRY AND STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH THE STRONGEST DRYING NOTED OVER THE
SW GULF. THE STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE SUPPORTIVE OF CLEAR
SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS W OF 89W...AND MOST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE MOST OF THE
WESTERN GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
TROUGHING DRIFTING EASTWARD WITH POSSIBLE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS BY
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AS THE LOW SHIFTS INTO THE ATLC BY
TUESDAY...THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE GULF BY WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES OVER
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER AT
THE SURFACE...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL E OF 82W WITH A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE 1012 MB
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N84W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE LOW CENTER TO 17N83W. LOW-TOPPED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 18N
BETWEEN 77W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS...INCLUDING INLAND AREAS
OF CUBA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAILS OFF TO THE EAST...HOWEVER
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE EASTERLY TRADES N OF 13N E OF 73W. LOOKING AHEAD...AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SKIRT THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS...ACROSS
CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING WITH IT INCREASED PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION.

...HISPANIOLA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE ISLAND
FROM 20N72W TO 22N66W AND BEYOND PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OCCURRING N OF 17N BETWEEN 65W AND 73W AND AREAS NORTH
OF THE ISLAND WITHIN THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGH LATE
MONDAY...WHILE AN AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS INTRODUCES A
FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE ISLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY INCREASING
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FAIRLY BROAD AND WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A
BROAD AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 72W AND 84W...INCLUDING
MOST OF CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WHILE STILL IN INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT STAGES...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY ANALYZED
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AND DEVELOP INTO A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM OFFSHORE OF THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO THE CAROLINAS. FARTHER EAST... ANOTHER
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY
OF 32N48W THAT SUPPORTS A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N44W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N50W TO 21N60W
AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO 20N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING N OF 23N WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE FRONT AND FROM
28N TO 35N BETWEEN 39W AND 46W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD AND STATIONARY
FRONTS S OF 23N. OTHERWISE...A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W AND A WEAKENING 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
NEAR 23N44W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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