[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON FEB 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W SW
TO 03N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N30W 01N44W TO THE NORTHERN COAST
OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS AND WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING
ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS SW ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE TROUGHING IS ALSO AT THE
MIDDLE LEVELS. THIS ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH
ON THE EASTERN GULF ALONG 29N85W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR
26N86W...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO 21N82W IN THE NW CARIBBEAN.
SHALLOW MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS ENHANCES
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS E OF 87W. SHOWERS AND TSTMS
STRETCHES TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND STRAITS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WITH EASTERN PERIPHERY EXTENDING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF. UPPER RIDGING SUPPORTS THE PRESENCE OF A 1017 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 23N90W CONFIRMED BY SCATTEROMETER
DATA. STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE IN THIS REGION
OF THE GULF FAVOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS S OF
27N W OF 88W. THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
E WITH POSSIBLE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOME
MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC MONSOON REGION INTO THE BASIN. SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS ALSO ADVECTS MOISTURE
FROM THE PACIFIC WATERS INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ADVECTS SHALLOW MOISTURE FROM THE ATLC INTO
THE E CARIBBEAN. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL
TROUGHING SUPPORT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER CUBA AND
WESTERN HISPANIOLA. TSTMS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS
ARE FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE TAIL OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM A LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE TAIL OF A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG
PUERTO RICO NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND THEN ACROSS CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
IS ENHANCING SHOWERS ACROSS DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO.
OTHERWISE...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL E OF 80W WITH A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. LOOKING
AHEAD...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...A FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SKIRT THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN
WATERS...ACROSS CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING WITH IT INCREASED
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE TAIL OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC SW TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N69W TO SE
HAITI NEAR 18N72W. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGH LATE
TODAY...WHILE AN AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS INTRODUCES A
FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE ISLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY INCREASING
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

FAIRLY BROAD AND WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A
BROAD AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 21N TO 28N W OF 63W...INCLUDING MOST OF
CUBA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND THE BAHAMAS. FARTHER
EAST...ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED
IN THE VICINITY OF 30N42W THAT SUPPORTS A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 31N42W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
21N53W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 20N63W...DISSIPATING TO
SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING N OF 27N BETWEEN 31W AND 43W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...A DISSIPATING 1017 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
27N55W...A 1015 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 25N22W FURTHER WEAKENING
AND DRIFTING NE THROUGH TUE MORNING AND A 1018 MB HIGH LOCATES
NEAR 22N42W. A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS TUE
MORNING WITH POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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