[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062332
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLANTIC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NW ATLANTIC N OF 30N WITHIN
120 NM E OF FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO 24N76W TO 22N78W.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 08N13W TO 03N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 01N31W TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W. ISOLATED CONVECTION
IS FROM 00N-04N BETWEEN 16W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH OVER
S TEXAS AND A 1029 MB HIGH OVER N CAROLINA. WITH THESE FEATURES
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC TO THE W REACHING THE NE GULF E OF
85W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY MOVING E
ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND W CARIBBEAN. A SLIGHT TO GENTLE NE
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE TO SHIFT E ALLOWING FOR THE
NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW GULF LATE THIS WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND NE GULF SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC INTO THE W
CARIBBEAN FROM 21N78W TO 16N86W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS
THE E CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND WITH DRY STABLE
AIR ALOFT THIS AREA CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE FAIR WEATHER. A
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS W OF THE FRONT WHILE
SLIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA E OF
THE FRONT AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BEGIN WEAKENING AND
STALL OVER E CUBA AND TRANSITION TO A SHEAR LINE OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW PORTION OF
THE BASIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE PROXIMITY OF THE COLD FRONT OVER E CUBA CONTINUES TO ENHANCE
THE MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL AND WEAKEN OVER E CUBA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF IS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE FAR W
ATLC BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N60W TO 21N77W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 23N BETWEEN 49W-68W. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE NOTICED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND A GALE WARNING
CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE NW ATLANTIC. FOR MORE INFORMATION
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. A 1020 MB
SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED AHEAD OF THE FRONT NEAR 30N48W. TO THE
E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N33W. THE
FRONT IS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 24N34W TO 21N44W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF 25N BETWEEN 26W-32W. A
SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE FAR E ATLANTIC WITH FAIR
WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND E CONUS TO MOVE E REACHING THE W
ATLANTIC. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE W ATLANTIC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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