[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070525
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT FEB 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 3N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
0N31W TO 2S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE COAST
OF LIBERIA FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 7W-10W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR
33N77W. THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO HAS 10-15 KT NE SURFACE WINDS
WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE SE GULF. RESIDUAL BROKEN COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE GULF. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 83W. THE
REMAINDER OF GULF IS VOID OF PRECIPITATION. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH SOME SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
THE E GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE WINDS
TO VEER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURN
FLOW. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A WARMING TREND WITH NEXT TO NO
PRECIPITATION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM E CUBA AT 21N77W TO THE COAST OF NE HONDURAS AT 16N85W. 20
KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN HAS 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS...HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE. MORE RESIDUAL
SHOWERS ARE OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. FURTHER E...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO FULLY
DISSIPATE...HOWEVER RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAY REMAIN OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE PROXIMITY OF THE COLD FRONT OVER E CUBA AND HISPANIOLA
CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE MOISTURE CONTENT SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR
33N77W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N58W TO
26N64W TO E CUBA AT 21N77W. 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE W OF
FRONT WITH BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF FRONT. A 1021 MB HIGH IS FURTHER
E NEAR 29N47W. A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N35W.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW ALONG 31N31W 27N29W 22N34W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT FROM 25N-31N
BETWEEN 25W-28W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W SUPPORTING  THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N33W
SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC COLD FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR BOTH FRONTS TO MOVE E WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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