[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061806
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT OVER THE NW ATLC N OF 30N WITHIN 120
NM E OF FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N63W TO BEYOND 27N70W. THIS
GALE WARNING WILL SHIFT E AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N12W ALONG 5N15W TO 3N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 1N27W TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 8W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 90W WITH
NEAR ZONAL SOUTH-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF. SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON ANCHORED
BY A 1030 MB HIGH OVER S TEXAS AND A 1029 MB HIGH OVER N
ALABAMA. BROKEN TO LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
COVERS BASIN S OF 28N BETWEEN 84W-97W. FOG/HAZE IS BEING
REPORTED IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA TO
TEXAS AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF NE MEXICO N OF 24N
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E OF THE GULF SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUN ALLOWING FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FAR NW GULF AND N/CENTRAL GULF EARLY ON MON AND ACROSS THE N
GULF MON AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL W TO NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER
TROUGH IN THE W ATLC/NE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO
THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR CIEGO DE AVILA TO 19N86W
WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN TO NEAR 19N91W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 15N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES
BETWEEN 62W-75W INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING SCATTERED
SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA W OF
81W TO THE COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN E OF
THE COLD FRONT LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO STALL
AND WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM E CUBA SW TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
AND TRANSITION TO A SHEAR LINE FROM THERE TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS BY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY ON SAT. THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE LATER ON SAT AND INTO SUN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN MON AFTERNOON.

...HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE E TIP OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WHILE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL...TRADE WIND
INDUCED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHEN AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT
WILL STALL FROM E CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURAS EARLY SAT. THIS
MOISTURE WILL LINGER INCREASING SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NE GULF AND W ATLC N OF 25N W OF
68W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N63W
ALONG 27N70W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO OVER CUBA AND INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR CIEGO DE AVILA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT E OF THE BAHAMAS.
THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF IS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE FAR W
ATLC IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E
OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 20N60W TO BEYOND 32N52W AND IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 55W-61W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
E ATLC EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA FROM A 1011 MB LOW
NEAR 32N34W ALONG 28N33W 23N39W TO 22N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 24N BETWEEN 28W-33W AND N OF 30N
BETWEEN 33W-37W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 32N57W
TO 23N71W THEN STATIONARY TO E CUBA BY THIS EVENING BEFORE
STALLING EARLY SAT. THE FRONT WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A SHEAR
LINE DURING THE REST OF SAT/EARLY SUN BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE
SUN. GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE E INTO THE W ATLC
SAT THROUGH SUN BEFORE SHIFTING TO JUST NE OF 65W SUN NIGHT. THE
NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF SE GEORGIA COAST LATE MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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