[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061147
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI FEB 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT CURRENTLY IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A COLD FRONT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 31N69W TO 24N80W.
GALE-FORCE SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET
TO 11 FEET ARE TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 63W AND THE COLD
FRONT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECASTS...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 3N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N14W
TO 2N19W...TO 2N22W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 31W...TO 1S34W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 14W AND 22W...AND FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN
24W AND 27W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND LOCALLY
STRONG FROM 5N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 6W AND 12W.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 26N15W TO 22N24W 10N35W 5N51W. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE 26N15W-TO-5N51W LINE.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE 32N70W 27N77W 23N88W MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N70W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 27N77W...TO 24N82W AND 23N88W IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N67W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W...JUST TO THE NORTH
OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...
REACHING THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
WITHIN 60 NM TO 80 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT FROM
21N TO 23N. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS DISPLAYED
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE COVERS MEXICO AND TEXAS FROM 17N TO 31N. SOME OF THE
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...FROM 24N SOUTHWARD FROM 88W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60
NM TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N66W TO 27N71W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N65W 27N70W
22N80W.

STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM A TEXAS 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
31N98W...THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...ALONG THE MEXICO
COAST...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE AREA OF THE PLATFORM SITES.
THE ONLY SITES THAT ARE NOT REPORTING LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
ARE...KEIR...KMDJ...KVKY...KMIS...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN ONE-
THIRD OF THE AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO JAMAICA...AND INTO
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW RUNS UP
AGAINST THE MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES
CUBA...AND IT MOVES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND BEYOND...INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN.

600 MB TO 800 MB LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...BECOMING NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AS MOVES TOWARD
HONDURAS.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 7N87W...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTH
AMERICA FROM COLOMBIA TO NICARAGUA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 16N SOUTHWARD FROM 70W
WESTWARD.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...THAT IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW
LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. CLOUD CEILINGS RANGE IN HEIGHT FROM 4000
FEET TO 8000 FEET...WITH SOME AREAS OF RAIN...IN THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN PARTS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...FROM 14N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD.

THE MONSOON TROUGH DOES NOT EXIST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA FROM 11N SOUTHWARD FROM 81W WESTWARD ALONG THE COASTS
OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES
HISPANIOLA. 600 MB TO 800 MB LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
SURROUNDS HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...
THAT IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN LA
ROMANA AND IN PUNTA CANA. RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF
PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN
SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO
PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
COLOMBIA TO GUATEMALA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS
THAT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE
FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST CYCLE. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...E VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THEN IT WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TO 17N54W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE ANTICYCLONIC
CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH TIME. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE TO A POSITION THAT IS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF
HISPANIOLA DURING THE SECOND 24-HOUR PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE SECOND 24-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH
WILL EXTEND FROM LA PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN
COLOMBIA TO JAMAICA. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL SURROUND HISPANIOLA
FOR THE REST OF THE TIME OF THE FIST 24 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL SPAN
HISPANIOLA. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE
SECOND 24-HOUR TIME PERIOD OF THE ENTIRE 48-HOUR FORECAST CYCLE.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 20N67W TO
28N60W BEYOND 32N58W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 50W AND FLORIDA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N37W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 29N35W 24N31W 18N30W 11N32W. A
SECOND BRANCH OF A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N38W TO 7N47W AND TO
5N56W IN SURINAME. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N34W TO 28N34W 24N40W AND 23N50W. THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY FROM 23N50W TO 24N57. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
27N34W 25N35W 20N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 23N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 29W AND 38W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 27N53W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF THE 32N34W-TO-24N58W FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N19W TO 25N22W TO 20N33W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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