[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT CURRENTLY IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A COLD FRONT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 31N72W TO 26N80W.
GALE-FORCE SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET
TO 11 FEET ARE TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO
67W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECASTS...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W 5N13W TO 2N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
2N18W...TO 2N23W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 40W...TO COASTAL
BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 3N16W 3N18W 2N20W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 30 NM TO
60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N10W 2N20W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 30W.
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 2N8W 1N10W TO
THE EQUATOR ALONG 12W.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 26N15W TO 22N24W 10N35W 5N51W. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE 26N15W-TO-5N51W LINE.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE 32N74W 28N77W 23N88W
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N74W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 28N77W...AND TO 23N88W IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N70W...TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR
26N81W...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N90W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 21N IN
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...ALONG
NORTHWESTERN COASTAL CUBA...TO 24N IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS DISPLAYED IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
COVERS MEXICO AND TEXAS FROM 17N TO 31N. SOME OF THE HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 24N
SOUTHWARD FROM 88W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 125 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO 26N75W...AND
WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 65W FROM 27N NORTHWARD
TO 33N.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO
NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR THE 12-HOUR FORECAST. PLEASE
READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/
FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE AREA OF THE PLATFORM SITES.
THE ONLY SITES THAT ARE NOT REPORTING LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
ARE...KEIR...KSPR...KMDJ...KVOA...KVKY...KMIS...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS...
EXCEPT FOR CLEARING SKIES IN BEAUMONT. LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN ONE-
THIRD OF THE AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO JAMAICA...AND INTO
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...RUNNING UP AGAINST THE MIDDLE LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES CUBA...AND IT MOVES
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND BEYOND...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

600 MB TO 800 MB LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH
YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...BECOMING NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AS MOVES TOWARD HONDURAS.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 7N87W...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTH
AMERICA FROM COLOMBIA TO NICARAGUA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 16N SOUTHWARD FROM 70W
WESTWARD.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...THAT IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW
LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. CLOUD CEILINGS RANGE IN HEIGHT FROM 4000
FEET TO 9000 FEET...WITH SOME AREAS OF RAIN...IN THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN PARTS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...FROM 13N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD.

THE MONSOON TROUGH DOES NOT EXIST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA FROM 11N SOUTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES
HISPANIOLA. 600 MB TO 800 MB LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA ALSO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...
THAT IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA...PUNTA CANA...SANTIAGO...AND
IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
COLOMBIA TO GUATEMALA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS
THAT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE
FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST CYCLE. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START BETWEEN ANGUILLA/ST. MARTIN AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THEN IT WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO 17N58W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD WITH TIME. A TROUGH WILL MOVE TO A POSITION THAT IS
TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 24-HOUR
PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE
SECOND 24-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700
MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM JAMAICA TO THE PENINSULA
DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL
REACH HISPANIOLA. THE WEATHER PATTERN REVERSES ITSELF DURING THE
NEXT 6 HOURS BECAUSE A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WHERE THE
TROUGH WAS 6 HOURS EARLIER. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW STILL IS
FORECAST TO REACH HISPANIOLA. AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED
RIDGE MAINTAINS ITSELF ENOUGH EVENTUALLY FOR THE REST OF THE 48-
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 21N68W TO
26N62W BEYOND 32N61W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 50W AND FLORIDA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO
23N35W 18N33W 11N40W...TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N52W.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO
26N40W 24N46W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 24N46W TO
23N53W AND 24N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N34W 25N36W
22N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 29W AND
38W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO 26N51W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF THE 32N35W-TO-24N58W FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N18W TO 24N26W TO 16N32W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 32W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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