[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
...GALE WARNING IN CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-77W. THIS
GALE WARNING WILL BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING IN GULF OF MEXICO...
A GALE WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
N OF 26N WITHIN 60 NM W OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
28N90W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 24N95W TO 21N90W. THIS GALE WARNING
WILL BE DISCONTINUED THIS EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT THU MORNING OVER THE NW ATLC N
OF 27.5N WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT THAT WILL EXTENDS FROM 31N78W
TO 29N81W. THIS GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 2N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 1N24W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 11W-16W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 5N BETWEEN 17W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING S OVER TEXAS INTO THE FAR NW
ATLC WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN
INTO THE W ATLC. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. A
REMNANT 1012 MB LOW IS IN THE W GULF AT 04/1500 UTC NEAR 24N95W
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE ALONG 26N93W TO 28N89W AND A
SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG 22N93W TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO NEAR COMALCALCO. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 26N E OF 94W TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF
COAST. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 23N-16N BETWEEN 90W-93W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE W OF THE TROUGH/LOW. A SURFACE
RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH SE
OF MONTERREY MEXICO. THE SURFACE TROUGHS ARE DEVELOPING FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND WILL BE A WARM/COLD FRONTS BY TONIGHT. THIS
NEW FRONT WILL EXIT THE GULF ON THU. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
BUILD E OVER THE W GULF THU AND THU NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N FROM VENEZUELA ACROSS
HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN AND MAY BE PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 16N-
20N BETWEEN 83W-87W. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING
SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST S OF
THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER AND W OF 81W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OFF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PULSING TO MINIMAL GALE
FORCE AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THU
NIGHT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THEN STALL FROM W CUBA TO THE GULF
OF HONDURAS FRI AFTERNOON.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAINS REMARKABLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ISLAND.
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL...TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY FRI WHEN AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
OCCUR AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W ATLC STARTING
THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL INCREASE SHOWERS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC
ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND 32N72W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF
THE NE FLORIDA COAST FROM 31N79W TO OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR
CAPE CANAVERAL. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
TO OVER FLORIDA. AN UPPER TROUGH N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A COLD
FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N52W ALONG 27N58W TO 24N65W
WHERE IT BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH TO 23N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W
ATLC W OF THIS FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC IS SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N30W ALONG 25N34W TO 19N43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 22N. THE CENTRAL ATLC
COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OFF THE SE
GEORGIA COAST THU MORNING WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING NE OF THE
AREA BY THU EVENING. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N75W TO NEAR
MELBOURNE FLORIDA THU AFTERNOON THEN WEAKEN AND STALL STARTING
FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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