[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041156
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED FEB 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY ARE PRESENT IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM
10 FEET TO 13 FEET ARE BEING EXPERIENCED NOW FROM 10.5N TO 13N
BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. THESE GALE-FORCE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 9 HOURS OR SO. THEY WILL STOP FOR 9 HOURS OR SO...
AND THEN GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 13 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND
77W WILL START AGAIN AT THE 18-HOUR FORECAST TIME.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECASTS...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC AND
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 5N15W TO 5N19W AND 3N22W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 3N22W...TO 1N30W...REACHING THE EQUATOR ALONG
37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N11W 5N13W 4N19W 2N26W
1N29W TO 2N35W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW CURVES
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 24N96W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS EASTWARD TO 23N85W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWESTERN
COASTAL LOUISIANA...AND ANOTHER PART OF THE TROUGH EXTENDS TO
COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 18N92W.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE COMPARATIVELY THICKEST AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS IS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 27N83W TO 24N88W TO 19N93W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE ENTIRE
AREA... EXCEPT FOR THE SITES KMZG...KHHV...AND KIPN. THE
FOLLOWING SITES ARE REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS
AND FOG...KEMK...KHQI...KGUL...KGBK...KEHC...KEIR...KSPR...
KGRY...KATP...AND KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN COVER THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL
PLAINS FROM THE LINE OF VICTORIA/PORT LAVACA/PALACIOS SOUTHWARD.
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL
AREAS FROM VICTORIA NORTHWARD TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN
AREA...AND INTO SOUTHERN/COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA...
MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM
TALLAHASSEE WESTWARD. RAIN IS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM
PERRY WESTWARD...AND IN BROOKSVILLE.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO LOW LEVEL EAST AND SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ENTIRE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW IS MOVING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 7N86W...INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...THAT IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW
LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR
THE PERIOD ENDING AT 04/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.09 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT PRESENT AT THIS MOMENT. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 8N77W IN COLOMBIA...TO 5N78W TO 1N82W IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...THAT IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS
IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND IN
PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA BEYOND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SMALL PART
OF THE LARGER-SCALE RIDGE WILL BREAK AWAY FROM THE LARGER-SCALE
RIDGE AND IT WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST 24
HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST CYCLE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
500 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA...ENDING UP ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS AT THE END OF THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE FROM THE WATERS THAT
ARE BETWEEN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...EASTWARD
TO 24N60W AT THE END OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE WIND FLOW WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY...EASTERLY...SOUTHEASTERLY...AND FINALLY SOUTHERLY
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO
24N39W TO 15N43W TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA. THE TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N31W TO 31N31W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N31W TO 20N40W. A SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 20N40W TO 17N44W AND TO 21N53W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N29W TO 27N33W 24N36W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO 24N26W TO 17N36W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N31W 20N40W COLD
FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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