[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY ARE PRESENT IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM
10 FEET TO 13 FEET ARE BEING EXPERIENCED NOW FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. THESE GALE-FORCE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECASTS...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC AND
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA
NEAR 6N10W TO 4N16W TO 3N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N21W...TO
1N26W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 36W...AND STAYING ALONG THE
EQUATOR TO 49W AT THE COAST OF BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N7W TO 6N10W TO 6N14W TO 3N29W 3N43W AND
3N50W SOUTHWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW CURVES
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 22N94W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS EASTWARD TO 23N85W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM 27N80W TO 24N86W TO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE ENTIRE AREA.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN COVER THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL
PLAINS. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN COVER
SOUTHERN/COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS COVER SOUTHERN/COASTAL SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
TAMPA-ST.PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
COVER FLORIDA FROM PUNTA GORDA TO NAPLES.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO LOW LEVEL EAST AND SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ENTIRE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW IS MOVING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 7N86W...INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...THAT IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW
LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR
THE PERIOD ENDING AT 04/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.09 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 3N78W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 5N83W...
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...THAT IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO...LA
ROMANA...AND IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA BEYOND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SMALL PART
OF THE LARGER-SCALE RIDGE WILL BREAK AWAY FROM THE LARGER-SCALE
RIDGE AND IT WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST 24
HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST CYCLE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
500 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA...ENDING UP ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS AT THE END OF THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE FROM THE WATERS THAT
ARE BETWEEN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...EASTWARD
TO 24N60W AT THE END OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE WIND FLOW WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY...EASTERLY...SOUTHEASTERLY...AND FINALLY SOUTHERLY
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO
25N40W TO 16N42W TO 10N50W TO 5N51W. ANOTHER BRANCH OF A RIDGE
IS ALONG 10N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N31W TO 31N31W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 31N31W TO 23N37W AND 20N40W. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 20N40W TO 18N44W AND TO 20N53W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N30W TO 28N32W 25N36W AND TO 21N40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO 24N27W TO 16N34W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
17N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N31W 25N35W 18N43W
20N53W COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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