[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN...NE TO E GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH ASSOCIATED
SEAS RANGING FROM 11 TO 13 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 09N14W SW TO 02N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01N30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
02S42W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 13W AND 18W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE ITCZ
AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE EASTERN CONUS...THE FAR WESTERN
ATLC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 23N. THIS SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OVER SW ALABAMA IS BEING SUPPORTED BY
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE GULF OF
MEXICO...THE SW N ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN. A WEAKNESS IN THE
SURFACE RIDGE IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 28N96W TO
24N97W TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 21N93W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
NE TO E FROM THE LOW ALONG 22N90W TO 23N83W. SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE ADVECTS MOISTURE
FROM THE EPAC WATERS ACROSS THE BASIN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS ALSO
OBSERVED IN SSMI TPW IMAGERY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 23N W OF 84W AND S OF 23N
W OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DRIFT
NE TO E WHILE IT WEAKENS INTO A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NE GULF
EARLY THU MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN MERGE WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA THU MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...THE SW N ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN. EXCEPT FOR PATCHES OF
SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA
AND PUERTO RICO...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR DOMINATES...THUS HINDERING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SW N ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS NW S
AMERICA IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA THAT ARE FORECAST THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE. TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...

LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY. REMNANT MOISTURE IS
SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND OVER SW HAITI. NO CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DUE TO A STABLE AND DRY ENVIRONMENT ALOFT.
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WED NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W ATLC.
AN UPPER TROUGH N OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT
ALONG 30N61W SW TO 24N73W. A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 27N64W TO 24N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF
BOTH BOUNDARIES. AN UPPER LOW N OF THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL TROPICS AND IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ALONG 30N31W SW TO
22N39W TO 20N52W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT. THE FAR E ATLC IS COVERED BY A SURFACE RIDGE N OF
27N. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE S NW ATLC WATERS ON
THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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