[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE FEB 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
...GALE WARNING IN CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10.5N-13.5N BETWEEN 73.5W-77W.
THIS GALE WARNING WILL BE DISCONTINUED AT 03/18OO UTC AND WILL
PULSE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AND WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...
A GALE WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT N OF 29N E OF FRONT TO 63W.
THE FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS
GALE WARNING WILL BE DISCONTINUED AT 03/1800 UTC. PLEASE SEE THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING IN GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 4N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 2N25W 1N32W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 38W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 9W-20W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 27W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W
ATLC IS GIVING THE GULF S TO W FLOW ALOFT. A REMNANT FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO 24N80W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 22N87W TO A 1015 MB SURFACE
LOW IN THE SW GULF NEAR 22N95W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SE
FROM THE LOW TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO AND A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE LOW TO 24N97W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS COVER THE GULF W OF 84W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT COVERING THE N GULF OF MEXICO AND SE CONUS ANCHORED
BY A 1028 MB HIGH OVER NE LOUISIANA AND A 1027 MB HIGH OVER NW
NORTH CAROLINA. THE FRONT E OF 90W WILL DRIFT S INTO YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND STALL. THE LOW AND THE REMINDER OF THE FRONT WILL
SHIFT N TODAY TO NEAR 27N BY WED EVENING THEN MOVE E-NE ACROSS
NE GULF WED NIGHT AND EXIT ACROSS FLORIDA EARLY THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS E CUBA
INTO THE W ATLC. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN AND MAY BE PRODUCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 63W-78W AND FROM 17N-21N
BETWEEN 78W-84W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH MINIMAL
GALE FORCE WINDS DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
THROUGH THU. THE GULF OF MEXICO FRONT WILL DRIFT S AND WILL
STALL ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NW CUBA TONIGHT BEFORE
DRIFTING N ON WED.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAINS REMARKABLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ISLAND.
THE COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC WILL REMAIN N OF HISPANIOLA AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE W ATLC. HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FRONT COULD GIVE THE S PORTION OF THE ISLAND
ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL...TRADE
WIND INDUCED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WED AND THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC. AN
UPPER TROUGH N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE W ATLC
NEAR BERMUDA ALONG 27N71W TO 24N80W WHERE IT CONTINUES INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO AS A STATIONARY FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N66W ALONG 27N69W TO 24N74W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO AND SE CONUS EXTENDS
OVER THE FAR W ATLC W OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER LOW N OF THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL TROPICS AND
IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32WN30W
TO 24N38W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 20N46W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS S OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN THE W ATLC AND
E/CENTRAL ATLC FRONTS. THE FAR E ATLC IS COVERED BY A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES. W ATLC COLD
FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N58W THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO NW
CUBA TODAY WHERE IT WILL STALL THEN WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO DRIFT N
WED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS ON THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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