[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042336
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED FEB 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-77W. THIS
GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE
SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING IN GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
N OF 26N WITHIN 60 NM W OF A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N83W
TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 27N91W. THIS WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE DEVELOPING IN THE W ATLANTIC...

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT BY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE
NW ATLC N OF 28N WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT THAT WILL EXTENDS FROM
31N78W TO 29N81W. THIS WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.  PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 08N13W TO 02N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 00N35W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR OVER THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
41W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 11W-16W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 01N-04N
BETWEEN 21W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH TEXAS AND ENTERS THE NW
GULF WATERS WITH AXIS ALONG 96W. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL AND E GULF INTO THE W ATLANTIC. THESE
FEATURES ARE KEEPING A SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. A 1010 MB
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N91W. FROM THIS LOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT FROM
29N83W TO 29N87W TO THE LOW AND A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT FROM THE
LOW TO 23N92W TO 19N92W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PREVAIL N OF 23N E OF 90W AFFECTING THE
GULF WATERS AND THE SE CONUS. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE NW GULF AS LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS STRONG WINDS
MAINLY N OF 26N W OF 90W. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE LOW AND FRONTS TO CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS
THE BASIN WITH CONVECTION. THE SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING
OVER E MEXICO WILL THEN DOMINATE THE W GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER
SOUTH AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS
HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLANTIC. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND SUPPORTED BY UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
GENERATING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY W OF 85W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING BENIGN WEATHER. GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 15N WHERE
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL
FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A COLD
FRONT TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
CONVECTION. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL NEAR CUBA AND WEAKEN.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND. ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL
TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH THE
PROXIMITY OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN BY LATE
THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL ALONG CUBA AND WEAKEN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE END OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N81W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 32N49W TO 24N64W WHERE IT BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH TO
23N69W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THESE
BOUNDARIES. TO THE E...ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E
ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
31N30W TO 25N33W TO 20N42W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM E
OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 25N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT
FOR BOTH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT AND STATIONARY FRONT TO
WEAKEN. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING NE OF THE AREA BY THE
EVENING. WITH THIS...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE W
ATLANTIC MAINLY N OF 28N. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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