[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC...NW GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF
30N BETWEEN 52W AND 54W. THE GALE IS W OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM 31N48W TO 22N60W TO 21N75W. SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS REGION
RANGE FROM 12 TO 20 FT. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY
EVENING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST N OF 30N W OF 77W AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT EMERGING FROM THE SE U.S. COAST. SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS
REGION WILL RANGE FROM 12 TO 15 FT. GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

CARIBBEAN...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP EARLY
MONDAY MORNING ON THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W
AND 78W. SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS REGION WILL RANGE FROM 11 TO 16 FT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING...THEN RESUME EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION.

GULF OF MEXICO...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY
EVENING ON THE WESTERN GULF FROM 22N TO 24N W OF 95W AND A COLD
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 29N83W TO 21N95W TO 18N94W. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE TUESDAY EVENING. SEE THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE INFORMATION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N11W TO 4N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
1N40W TO 2N45W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-3N BETWEEN 39W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING SE. A 1027 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 31N73W. 15-20 KT
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE E GULF. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE W GULF S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 94W-
100W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. AIR
TEMPERATURES OVER THE GULF ARE PRESENTLY IN THE 70'S. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF WITH WESTERLY
FLOW. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE N OF A LINE FROM
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO TAMPICO MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO ENTER
THE GULF LATE THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT IN 24 HOURS TO
EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO S OF VERACRUZ MEXICO WITH
CONVECTION...AND A GALE W OF FRONT. SEE ABOVE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE TAIL END OF A COLD
FRONT IS ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 21N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 18N60W TO 17N65W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH TO INCLUDE OVER PUERTO
RICO. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING WITH WSW FLOW IS
OVER THE AREA WITH VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH SHOWERS.

HISPANIOLA...

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT JUST N OF
HISPANIOLA IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS MOIST AIRMASS WILL LINGER
IN THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR
31N73W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N48W TO
22N60W TO 21N75W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N50W TO
18N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF FRONT N OF 22N
BETWEEN 43W-47W. THE GALE IS W OF A COLD FRONT. SEE ABOVE.
FURTHER E...A 1019 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N35W. A 1030 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES AT 40N24W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF
24N BETWEEN 45W-60W SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH
SHOWERS OR CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP
MONDAY ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA. SEE ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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