[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC...W TO NW GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE SW N ATLC AND
THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 30N WITHIN 480 NM W OF A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM 31N49W TO 21N65W TO 22N78W. SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS
REGION RANGE FROM 12 TO 22 FT. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY
MORNING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST N OF 30N W OF 77W AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT EMERGING FROM THE SE U.S. COAST. SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS
REGION WILL RANGE FROM 9 TO 12 FT. GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SEE THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE INFORMATION.

CARIBBEAN...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP EARLY
MONDAY MORNING ON THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W
AND 78W. SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS REGION WILL RANGE FROM 11 TO 16 FT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH LATE MONDAY MORNING...THEN RESUME
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION.

GULF OF MEXICO...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON ON THE WESTERN GULF FROM 21N TO 24N W OF 96W AND A
COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 28N83W TO 18N93W. WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE MONDAY NIGHT. SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 06N10W TO 03N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 01N28W TO 02N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OFF THE SE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC
WATERS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE PUSHES
FORWARD A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WATERS WITH TAIL
EXTENDING ALONG NORTHERN CUBA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. FROM
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...RETURN FLOW OF 15-20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE RIDGE SUPPORTS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG 23N81W NW
TO 27N86W TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W...THEN ALONG THE TEXAS
COASTLINE. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER SE TO S FLOW IN THE WESTERN GULF IS ADVECTING
SHALLOW MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN THAT SUPPORTS FOG OVER THE
NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 88W...ALSO SHOWN IN THE GOES-R PROVING
GROUND IFR AND LIFR PROBABILITY PRODUCTS. A COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER THE NW GULF MONDAY MORNING AND GALE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN GULF. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN HINDERING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN S AMERICA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT TRADE WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KT OVER THE BASIN...INCREASING TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT JUST N OF HISPANIOLA IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS.
THIS MOIST AIRMASS WILL LINGER IN THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...THUS SUPPORTING THE CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO AND
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NE
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND THEN WILL DISSIPATE NE OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. ANOTHER FRONT ENTERS THE BASIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT THAT
IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER E CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT JUST N OF
HISPANIOLA IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS MOIST
AIRMASS WILL LINGER IN THE REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...THUS SUPPORTING THE CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OFF THE SE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC
WATERS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE PUSHES
FORWARD A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WATERS ALONG 30N49W
SW TO 20N72W WITH TAIL EXTENDING ALONG NORTHERN CUBA. THE FRONT
IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ALSO
SUPPORTS A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ALONG 30N48W TO 18N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE IN
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SE
U.S. MONDAY MORNING AND GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF IT OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


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