[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020608
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON FEB 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
...GALE WARNING IN CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT OVERNIGHT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10.5N-13N BETWEEN 74W-78W UNTIL
MON MORNING. THIS GALE WILL PULSE AGAIN IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
MON INTO TUE. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT OFF THE GEORGIA COAST N OF
30N W OF 75W STARTING MON AFTERNOON UNTIL TUE MORNING. THIS GALE
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
INTO THE W ATLC EARLY MON. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING IN GULF OF MEXICO...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF OF MEXICO MON
EVENING S OF 22N W OF 95W THROUGH TUE MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN OVER THE W GULF MON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT AND WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO GENERATE THE GALE FORCE WINDS. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N11W TO 4N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 1N28W 1N45W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N
BETWEEN 38W-45W AND WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 5N46W TO INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. A NARROW BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
FROM 3.5N10W TO 1N24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND IS
ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE N GULF. AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING FROM THE PLAIN STATES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 02/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM
LOUISIANA NEAR VERMILION BAY ALONG 28N95W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS
NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE W OF A LINE FROM TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF THE FRONT TO OVER THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COASTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE EARLY MON. THE E SEGMENT OF THIS FRONT WILL RACE SE
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MON NIGHT WHILE LEAVING A NW TO
SE ORIENTED REMNANT TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF ON MON NIGHT AND
TUE. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
GENERATING THE GALE FORCE WINDS. THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIFT NE
ON TUE NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR 24N96W EARLY ON
WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NW ACROSS COLOMBIA TO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC
ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA. A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO 16N66W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 15N-
18N E OF 68W TO ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS WILL PREVAIL OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THU NIGHT
INCREASING TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND NE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THEN
STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY MON. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD
FRONT WILL BE STRONGER AND MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL MON
EVENING THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE FROM E CUBA TO NE HONDURAS
THOUGH TUE.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT AS COLD
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG THE N COAST OF THE
ISLAND W OF 70W. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MON NIGHT GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS. TUE WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THAT
WILL EXTEND FROM E CUBA TO NE HONDURAS MON EVENING THROUGH TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W
ATLC W OF 70W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 55W
ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 31N71W. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO
THE AREA NEAR 32N44W ALONG 25N50W 20N64W TO ALONG THE N COAST OF
HISPANIOLA W OF 70W TO ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA TO 21N76W. A
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
26N45W ALONG 20N55W ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W INTO
THE NE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE TO THE E IS BEING
AMPLIFIED AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75
NM OF LINE FROM 25N44W TO BEYOND 32N40W. A REMNANT 1018 MB
SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N35W. THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT OVER
HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA WILL INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT. GULF OF
MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST MON WITH
MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS N OF 30N NEAR THE FRONT TILL EARLY TUE
AS THE FRONT REACHES FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE E TUE NIGHT AND WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE NE OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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