[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 311204
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU DEC 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE COASTAL
WATERS OF COLOMBIA...FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W.
EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET. THE GALE-
FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 06N10W TO 05N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N15W TO
02N31W 02N33W AND 02N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 05N BETWEEN
18W AND 23W...AND FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 28W AND 47W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W
EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURVES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF...BEYOND THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB
TO 800 MB CURVES FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA...INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND BEYOND THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE
GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 31N87W TO 27N90W 25N94W...TO 19N95W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ABOUT 130 NM TO THE EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...
FROM 23N SOUTHWARD. DENSE COLD AIR WILL PUSH WHAT IS THE CURRENT
STATIONARY FRONT...WITH THE FRONT TRANSITIONING INTO A COLD
FRONT...ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GFS
MODEL SHOWS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE TEXAS COAST DURING THE EARLY-MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY...TO
FLORIDA BY THE EARLY-MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY...CLEARING THE
SKIES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N90W 28N87W 30N85W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING IN THE U.S.A. COASTAL PLAINS...
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 27N83W TO
23N90W TO 19N93W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LIFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KMDJ AND KDLP.

IFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KMZG...KBBF...KHHV... KEIR...AND KSPR.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...
KBQX...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...KGBK...KGHB...KVQT...
KGRY....AND KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...LIFR/IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN AND FOG IN THE
LOWER VALLEY. THE LIFR CONDITIONS ARE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE
CEILING CONDITIONS IMPROVE THE MORE THAT YOU MOVE AWAY FROM THE
COAST. MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREAS AND
LEADING TO PALACIOS...BAY CITY AND ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON AND
GALVESTON. VFR FOR THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND IN
SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES AS FAR AWAY AS HUNTSVILLE...TO
BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN LAFAYETTE/NEW IBERIA/
PATTERSON/...IFR IN GALLIANO AND IN PORT FOURCHON AND IN
BOOTHVILLE...IFR AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
MISSISSIPPI...IFR/LIFR IN THE COASTAL PLAINS. ALABAMA...LIFR/
IFR. FLORIDA...LIFR FROM PERRY WESTWARD...INCLUDING AREAS OF
RAIN AND FOG...AND IN BROOKSVILLE AND THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE
AIRPORT. LIFR CONTINUES TO PUNTA GORDA...FORT MYERS...AND
NAPLES.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE
COASTAL PLAINS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA TO 18N FROM 70W
WESTWARD...INCLUDING INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTHWARD
FROM COLOMBIA INTO VENEZUELA...AND BEYOND INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN.

EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB IS TO THE
NORTH OF THE LINE FROM 15N60W TO 16N75W...INCLUDING MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB COVERS THE
AREA FROM 10N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD...ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA. SOME NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB
IS FROM 13N SOUTHWARD FROM 78W WESTWARD.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF
BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
31/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.41 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IS
MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW FROM 600
MB TO 800 MB IS TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM 15N60W TO
16N75W...INCLUDING MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS A TROUGH WILL EXTEND
FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA TO NICARAGUA AT THE START
OF DAY ONE. EXPECT WESTERLY WIND AT THE START...FOLLOWED BY
NORTHEASTERLY AND MORE WESTERLY WIND BY THE END OF DAY ONE.
THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIRECTLY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. THE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD SLIGHTLY DURING DAY TWO.
EXPECT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...FOLLOWED BY
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AT THE END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING DAY ONE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ABOUT 500 NM TO 600 NM
TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. A SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ABOUT 440 NM TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF DAY TWO. A TROUGH WILL
BECOME COMPARATIVELY MORE DEVELOPED DURING DAY TWO...AND IT WILL
EXTEND FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.
EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ABOUT 800 NM TO THE
NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW
ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND AN INVERTED TROUGH ALSO...DURING DAY
ONE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE WILL BE ALONG 26N FOR DAY TWO.
EXPECT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND AN
INVERTED TROUGH ALSO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 19N19W EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 17N47W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 16N59W...JUST TO EAST OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT
IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY WITHIN 1000 NM TO THE NORTH OF
08N58W 10N40W 11N28W...BEYOND 14N18W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO 31N21W.
THE FRONT CONTINUES AS DISSIPATING STATIONARY FROM 31N21W TO
30N30W AND TO 30N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N14W TO 25N30W 27N43W AND 30N70W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 30N44W...TO A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N57W...TO 30N75W...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...
TO 26N86W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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