[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES OVER THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN JUST NORTH
OF COLOMBIA WITH WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KT FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN
73W AND 77W. SEAS OF 10 TO 16 FT ARE BEING GENERATED IN THE
AREA. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY FRIDAY. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E ATLC FROM THE W AFRICA
COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 05N17W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 03N30W TO 02N40W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR
00N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN
25W AND 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N86W TO 27N90W TO 25N94W TO
21N95W. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT.
MAINLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE E OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 87W AND 92W.
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N93W TO 18N95W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE MAINLY WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE W GULF. THE STATIONARY
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH DIGS SE ACROSS THE EASTERN US. BY FRIDAY EVENING
THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FL TO THE SW GULF. FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR NW OF THE FRONT.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN TODAY.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS IN SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE
AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE
GULF OF HONDURAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER N COLOMBIA SUPPORTS GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER A PORTION OF THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. MAINLY MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. LITTLE CHANGE IS
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE WINDWARD LOCATIONS OVER
HISPANIOLA DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. NO
DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO NE WINDS
ARE OCCURRING OVER THE AREA TODAY. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
FROM A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 29N50W. THIS RIDGING SUPPORTS MAINLY
FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E TO NE TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC S OF 30N. A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS
OF A COLD FRONT...EXTEND FROM 30N28W TO 29N36W. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS BEING OBSERVED WITH THIS TROUGH. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS SHOWERS WILL INCREASE E OF N FL AND GA AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE ATLC E OF FL/GA FRI
NIGHT...EXTENDING FROM NEAR 30N60W TO S FL BY SAT AFTERNOON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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