[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 310553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU DEC 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE COASTAL
WATERS OF COLOMBIA...FROM 10.5N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W.
EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET. THE GALE-
FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 42 HOURS.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 07N12W TO 07N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N14W TO
04N20W 02N30W AND 02N43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 02N TO 03N BETWEEN
29W AND 47W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W...TO 27N90W
26N92W...TO 26N95W AND 20N96W. DENSE COLD AIR WILL PUSH THE
CURRENT STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE TEXAS COAST DURING THE EARLY-MORNING
HOURS OF SUNDAY...TO FLORIDA BY THE EARLY-MORNING HOURS OF
MONDAY...CLEARING THE SKIES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 27N
TO 28N BETWEEN 88W AND 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE U.S.A.
COASTAL PLAINS FROM LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM 27N83W TO 24N90W TO 21N90W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LIFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KMDJ.

IFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KEIR...KSPR...KMIS...
AND KDLP.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KMZG...KBBF...
KBQX...KHHV...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...KGHB...KVQT...
KATP...KGRY...KIKT...KVOA...AND KVKY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN IN THE LOWER
VALLEY...MVFR/VFR IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREAS...VFR
FROM VICTORIA/PORT LAVACA/PALACIOS NORTHWARD TO THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA AND IN SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES AS FAR AWAY AS
HUNTSVILLE...TO BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...AND TO GALVESTON.
LOUISIANA...MVFR IN PATTERSON...IFR IN GALLIANO AND IN PORT
FOURCHON AND IN BOOTHVILLE...IFR AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
MISSISSIPPI...VFR IN PASCAGOULA...IFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
ALABAMA...MVFR AND RAIN/ LIGHT RAIN. FLORIDA...IFR AND HEAVY
RAIN FROM PENSACOLA TO MILTON IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LIFR AND
RAIN FROM MARY ESTHER/VALPARAISO/DESTIN TO CRESTVIEW...LIFR IN
THE PANAMA CITY METROPOLITAN AREA AND IN MARIANNA...IN
TALLAHASSEE AND IN PERRY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

ONE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. A SECOND AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 06N TO 17N BETWEEN 75W AND 83W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREAS OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. UPPER LEVEL
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA THAT IS FROM 80W
WESTWARD.

EASTERLY WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
IS TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM 15N60W TO 18N74W...INCLUDING
MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB COVERS THE
AREA FROM 11N NORTHWARD FROM 80W...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA THAT
IS FROM 80W WESTWARD.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF
BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
31/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.41 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. EASTERLY WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB IS IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA IS TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM 15N60W TO
18N74W...INCLUDING MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI AT 31/0000
UTC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN BARAHONA AT 31/0000 UTC. SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA
CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS A TROUGH WILL EXTEND
FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA TO NICARAGUA AT THE START
OF DAY ONE. EXPECT WESTERLY WIND AT THE START...FOLLOWED BY
NORTHEASTERLY AND MORE WESTERLY WIND BY THE END OF DAY ONE.
THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIRECTLY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. THE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD SLIGHTLY DURING DAY TWO.
EXPECT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...FOLLOWED BY
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AT THE END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING DAY ONE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ABOUT 500 NM TO 600 NM
TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. A SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ABOUT 440 NM TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF DAY TWO. A TROUGH WILL
BECOME COMPARATIVELY MORE DEVELOPED DURING DAY TWO...AND IT WILL
EXTEND FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.
EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ABOUT 800 NM TO THE
NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW
ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND AN INVERTED TROUGH ALSO...DURING DAY
ONE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE WILL BE ALONG 26N FOR DAY TWO.
EXPECT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND AN
INVERTED TROUGH ALSO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 20N18W EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 16N46W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 16N57W...JUST TO EAST OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT
IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS WITHIN AT LEAST 1000 NM TO
THE NORTH OF 08N59W 11N40W...AND WITHIN 600 NM TO 700 NM TO THE
NORTH OF 11N40W 12N30W BEYOND 12N20W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO 31N24W. THE FRONT
CONTINUES AS DISSIPATING STATIONARY FROM 31N24W TO 30N30W AND TO
30N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 27N39W
29N40W 32N65W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 29N43W...TO A 1030 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N55W...TO 31N66W AND 30N80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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