[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED DEC 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A GALE WARNING IS IN PLACE IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS JUST NORTH OF
COLOMBIA.  NO OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN AVAILABLE NEAR THE AREA OF
PEAK WINDS...THOUGH IT IS LIKELY THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 30
TO 35 KT.  THESE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AT ABOUT THE SAME MAGNITUDE.  PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH STRADDLES THE SOUTHERN COAST OF WEST AFRICA
FROM NIGERIA TO SIERRA LEON.  FROM THE SIERRA LEON COAST AT
08N13W THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS TO 06N17W.  FROM THAT POINT
THE ITCZ EXTENDS TO THE EQUATOR AT 47W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT
01S48W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM N OF
THE AXIS FROM 28W TO 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED FROM NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N95W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
NORTH OF 25N WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE FRONT.  WHILE THERE IS A
LARGE LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SUBSTANTIAL SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE TO ASSIST
THE CONVECTION.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT AND REACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY
FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION EXISTS NEAR THE FRONT NORTH OF 25N THROUGH FRIDAY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

A MODERATE NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GALE CONDITIONS NORTH
OF COLOMBIA.  AS THE GRADIENT IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE WITH
LITTLE CHANGE...NEAR-GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE PREDICTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE CARIBBEAN
CURRENTLY.  HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER LAND IN THE WINDWARD LOCATIONS OF THE GREATER
AND LESSER ANTILLES AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

PEAK 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.09 IN
ST THOMAS US VIRGIN ISLANDS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MODERATE NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC IS
INDUCING 15-25 KT E WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF HISPANIOLA
AND 10-20 KT E WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST.
THESE SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING HISPANIOLA CURRENTLY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WINDWARD LOCATIONS.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE BUT NARROW SURFACE RIDGE
THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 29N34W TO A 1030 MB HIGH
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA NEAR 30N60W. THESE ARE INDUCING GENERALLY
10-20 KT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WITH
PEAK WINDS OF 25 KT NEAR 15N35W.  A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDS FROM 32N25W TO 30N45W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN
60 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING AS CONDITIONS ARE SUPPRESSED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CWL
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