[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED DEC 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE COASTAL
WATERS OF COLOMBIA...FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. EXPECT
SEA HEIGHTS TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET TO 14 FEET. THE GALE-FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE
READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE AND GUINEA. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 09N17W
04N23W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 33W...TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 03S41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN
15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 05N18W 05N21W 03N25W 02N28W
03N32W 02N34W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. WHAT USED TO BE A COLD FRONT FIRST...AND THEN
A STATIONARY FRONT 24 HOURS AGO...NOW IS A WARM FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W...TO 26N90W AND 22N94W.
THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL
U.S.A. LATE ON WEDNESDAY TODAY. WHAT IS A WARM FRONT NOW WILL RE-
TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH
FLORIDA LATE ON THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 20N96W TO 23N90W TO
29N83W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KMZG...KBQX...
KGVX...KGLS...KVAF...KHQI...KVQT...KGHB...KGRY...KATP...
KMDJ...KMIS...AND KDLP.

IFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KEMK...KEIR...
KSPR...AND KVKY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...IFR CONDITIONS INLAND IN THE LOWER VALLEY...MVFR CLOSER
TO THE COAST. LIFR AND IFR AND RAIN/DRIZZLE IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS
GULF COAST AREAS...MVFR CONDITIONS FROM VICTORIA/PORT LAVACA/
PALACIOS NORTHWARD TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...TO
GALVESTON AND IN SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES AS FAR AWAY AS
HUNTSVILLE. LOUISIANA...LIGHT RAIN IN LAFAYETTE AND NEW
IBERIA...MVFR IN PATTERSON...LIFR IN PORT FOURCHON...IFR IN
GALLIANO...MVFR IN BOOTHVILLE...MVFR AROUND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...LIGHT RAIN IN HAMMOND. MISSISSIPPI...MVFR
CONDITIONS FROM GULFPORT EASTWARD. ALABAMA...MVFR CONDITIONS AND
HEAVY RAIN IN GULF SHORES. FLORIDA...LIFR AND RAIN IN MARY
ESTHER AND VALPARAISO...LIGHT RAIN IN DESTIN AND CRESTVIEW...
MVFR AND RAIN IN THE PANAMA CITY...MVFR IN APALACHICOLA...LIFR
IN TALLAHASSEE AND PERRY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 17N47W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 21N65W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TO 20N80W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA...TO HAITI...BEYOND 18N60W...LEADING INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN.

EASTERLY WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB COVERS THE AREA THAT IS
FROM 17N SOUTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD...INTO CENTRAL AMERICA.

SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF
BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND ELSEWHERE IN THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AT 29/2300 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS IN BARAHONA AT 30/0000 UTC.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING IS IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH THE CURRENT ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH...DURING DAY ONE. A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER WILL DEVELOP ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA DURING DAY
TWO. EXPECT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING DAY ONE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START THE FORECAST PERIOD
ABOUT 720 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE SAME
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE FROM 540 NM TO 620 NM
DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW DURING DAY
TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A EAST-TO-
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE
ABOUT 700 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO PASS ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WESTERN SAHARA/MAURITANIA
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N15W...TO 16N26W...TO
A 17N47W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 21N65W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 20N80W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS TO THE NORTH OF 10N60W 10N40W 13N30W
15N17W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N30W TO
27N37W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N38W TO 31N41W TO 30N49W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 30N49W TO 30N55W AND 31N61W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 27N39W 28N46W 32N63W.  WITHIN
60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH...AND ELSEWHERE
FROM 13N TO 25N BETWEEN 44W AND 60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A MOROCCO 33N04W HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER...TO 30N21W 28N40W AND 28N60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 30N69W...TO FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.05 IN
BERMUDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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