[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301159
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED DEC 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE COASTAL
WATERS OF COLOMBIA...FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. EXPECT
SEA HEIGHTS TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET. THE GALE-FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE
READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE COASTAL PLAINS OF LIBERIA NEAR
05N09W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 05N15W 04N22W...
TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 35W...TO 02S40W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 04N TO 05N BETWEEN 21W AND 25W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 02N
TO 03N BETWEEN 28W AND 36W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO 28N90W...TO 26N92W AND 22N95W.
THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FOR TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL
U.S.A. LATE ON WEDNESDAY TODAY. WHAT IS A WARM FRONT NOW WILL RE-
TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FLORIDA LATE ON THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 28N90W IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF WATERS. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE FROM 19N93W TO 24N90W TO 30N84W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE PLATFORM
SITES. ISOLATED AREAS OF LIFR ARE POSSIBLE.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN IN THE LOWER VALLEY...IFR
AND LIGHT RAIN IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREAS AND IN
VICTORIA AND PORT LAVACA...MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT RAIN FROM
PALACIOS NORTHWARD TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...TO
BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...AND TO GALVESTON AND IN SURROUNDING
COMMUNITIES AS FAR AWAY AS HUNTSVILLE. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL PLAINS...LIGHT RAIN IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SECTIONS...IFR AND HEAVY RAIN AROUND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...LIFR IN SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL AREAS.
MISSISSIPPI...LIFR CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER.
ALABAMA...LIFR CONDITIONS. FLORIDA...LIFR AND FOG FROM PERRY
WESTWARD. IFR FROM THE NORTHEASTERN TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA TO
BROOKSVILLE...AND FROM NAPLES TO PUNTA GORDA

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 17N47W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 22N65W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TO 18N60W...TO CENTRAL HISPANIOLA.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN
HALF OF CUBA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO 17N75W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY EVERYWHERE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM...THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA...TO HAITI...BEYOND 18N60W...LEADING INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN.

EASTERLY WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB COVERS THE AREA THAT IS
FROM 17N SOUTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD...INTO CENTRAL AMERICA.

SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF
BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND ELSEWHERE IN THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS IN BARAHONA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING IS IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH THE CURRENT ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH...DURING DAY ONE. A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER WILL DEVELOP ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA DURING DAY
TWO. EXPECT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING DAY ONE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START THE FORECAST PERIOD
ABOUT 720 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE SAME
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE FROM 540 NM TO 620 NM
DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW DURING DAY
TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A EAST-TO-
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE
ABOUT 700 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO PASS ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WESTERN SAHARA/MAURITANIA
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N15W...TO 16N26W...TO
A 17N47W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO CENTRAL HISPANIOLA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS TO THE NORTH OF 08N58W 13N40W 14N22W
15N17W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO
28N30W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N32W TO 30N41W TO 30N50W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 30N50W TO 31N61W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 27N39W 29N40W 32N65W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1032 MB MOROCCO 34N04W HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER...TO 30N20W 28N40W AND 28N55W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 30N67W 28N78W...TO 29N86W IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.05 IN
BERMUDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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