[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS N COLOMBIA
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE
WINDS BEGINNING 30/0000 UTC FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 73W-75W WITH
SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FT EXPECTED. THE GALE WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
LATE WED BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH SEAS TO 17 FT. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS CROSSES THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 07N11W AND
EXTENDS OVER THE ATLANTIC TO 05N20W TO 00N30W TO 03S40W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W TO
27N87W TO 25N90W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT TO
21N93W. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE FRONT N OF 26N. MAINLY MODERATE E TO NE WINDS ARE W OF THE
FRONT. MODERATE SE WINDS COVER THE S GULF E OF THE FRONT...AND
MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS COVER THE NE GULF E OF THE
FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT WILL TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT AS THE ENTIRE FRONT
DRIFTS TO THE W OVER THE GULF. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT DURING THIS TIME. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE CENTRAL US LATE WED...WHICH WILL RE-TRANSITION THE
FRONT BACK TO A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE GULF AND REACH FL LATE THURSDAY.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

SUBSIDENCE IS CONTINUING TO INHIBIT ANY DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER N COLOMBIA IS
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INTENSIFY LATE THIS
EVENING RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS. PLEASE REFER TO THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SUBSIDENCE INHIBITS ANY DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA IN SHALLOW
MOISTURE IN TRADE WIND FLOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N53W
DOMINATES MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC. THE EXCEPTIONS
ARE SHOWERS OVER THE GULF STREAM OFFSHORE FL/GA...AND A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N45W TO 31N60W.
NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLC WHILE THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF REMAINS IN TACT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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