[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE WARNING IN PLACE IN CARIBBEAN FOR THE WATERS JUST NORTH OF
COLOMBIA.  A 14Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED A LARGE AREA
OF PEAK WINDS AROUND 30 KT.  IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY BACK TO GALE FORCE BEGINNING THIS
EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  PLEASE READ THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST... MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH STRADDLES THE SOUTHERN COAST OF WEST AFRICA
FROM NIGERIA TO LIBERIA.  FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA AT 05N08W...
THE ITCZ EXTENDS TO 06N15W TO THE EQUATOR AT 34W TO 01S40W.  NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH OR THE ITCZ AT THIS TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS A SHORT DISTANCE FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO 28N86W.  FROM THAT POINT THE
FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND REACHES SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE
MEXICAN COAST SOUTHWEST OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NORTH OF 26N
EAST OF THE FRONT.  THIS CONVECTION IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO.  THE FRONT SHOULD RETROGRADE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY TONIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUPPORT FROM A NEW UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH...THE FRONT SHOULD AGAIN MOVE EASTWARD AND REACH THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA BY THURSDAY.  SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW GALE FORCE. HOWEVER...THE
POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS
NEAR THE FRONT NORTH OF 25N THROUGH THURSDAY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

A MODERATE NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EXPECTED GALE
CONDITIONS NORTH OF COLOMBIA.  AS THE GRADIENT IS ANTICIPATED TO
TIGHTEN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...NEAR-GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE PREDICTED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE CARIBBEAN CURRENTLY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
OVER LAND IN THE WINDWARD LOCATIONS OF THE GREATER AND LESSER
ANTILLES AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

PEAK 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
29/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.34 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MODERATE NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC IS
INDUCING 20-25 KT E WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF
HISPANIOLA AND 10-20 KT E TO SE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST.
THESE SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING HISPANIOLA CURRENTLY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WINDWARD LOCATIONS.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE BUT NARROW SURFACE RIDGE
THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1033 MB HIGH NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT
32N12W TO A 1029 MB HIGH SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N63W. THESE
ARE INDUCING GENERALLY 10-20 KT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRADEWINDS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WITH PEAK WINDS OF 25 KT NEAR 10N40W.  NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING AS CONDITIONS ARE
SUPPRESSED WITH NO FRONTAL FEATURES AN OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CWL
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