[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291202
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE COASTAL
WATERS OF COLOMBIA...FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W. EXPECT
SEA HEIGHTS TO RANGE FROM 9 FEET TO 12 FEET. THE GALE-FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 9 HOURS OR SO...
SUBSIDE FOR 9 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN START AGAIN AT THE 18-HOUR
TIME. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF EQUATORIAL
GUINEA AND CAMEROON...TO 02N08W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 02N087W...TO
03N15W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 25W...AND CONTINUING ALONG THE
EQUATOR TO 36W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 04N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 44W AND BRAZIL. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. ALL THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUPPORT FOR THE
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE WATERS OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA NEAR
APALACHICOLA TO 26N88W 20N82W...AND INTO THE ISTHMUS TEHUANTEPEC
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN INTERIOR PARTS OF
MEXICO...FROM 17N96W TO 24N100W IN INTERIOR MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 26N TO 30N
BETWEEN 84W AND 86W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 25N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND 90W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KMZG...KGLS...
KEMK...KGUL...KHQI..KGHB...KEIR...KSPR...KGRY...AND KVOA.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR CONDITIONS IN CONROE...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR... AND
IN GALVESTON. VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN THE
LAKE CHARLES METROPOLITAN AREA...AND AT THE KNEW LAKEFRONT
AIRPORT ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
MISSISSIPPI...VFR CONDITIONS. ALABAMA...VFR CONDITIONS.
FLORIDA...MVFR IN THE PANAMA CITY AREA...IFR IN MARIANNA...
LIFR/IFR IN APALACHICOLA...IFR IN PERRY...LIFR IN BROOKSVILLE
AND THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT...IN SARASOTA AND PUNTA GORDA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

A BROAD AREA OF WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY...IN THE AREA OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW...AND ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 16N FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EASTWARD...
LEADING INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB COVERS THE AREA
FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 77W WESTWARD.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF
BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
29/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.41 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...FROM 600
MB TO 800 MB...AND FROM 350 MB TO 500 MB. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS
HISPANIOLA...AND ELSEWHERE IN THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS IN BARAHONA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO...
IN LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN
SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND
FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. WESTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA ON DAY ONE. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD... FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TO HISPANIOLA. SOUTHWEST-
TO-WEST WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES NORTHWEST WIND FLOW AT THE
END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...AND THEN NORTHEAST WIND FLOW...WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE WILL
BE ALONG 28W...BETWEEN 42W AND 72W. EXPECT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST
WIND FLOW TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BEYOND
30N60W.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N41W TO 28N47W. THE
TROUGH LEADS INTO A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N50W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 25N
BETWEEN 44W AND 60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 30N20W...TO 26N27W 27N48W...TO A 1026
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N63W...TO 30N71W...INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N83W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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