[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...

THE 24-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE
WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...FROM 11N TO 13.5N
BETWEEN 71W AND 77W. EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS TO RANGE 10 TO 14 FEET.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF CAMEROON
NEAR 02N10E...TO 02N07W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 02N07W...TO THE
EQUATOR ALONG 25W...TO 03S42W AT THE COAST OF BRAZIL.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 04N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. ALL THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUPPORT FOR THE
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE WATERS OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N90W...TO 20N93W...
AND INTO THE ISTHMUS TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A
STATIONARY FRONT IS IN INTERIOR PARTS OF MEXICO...TO
23N100W IN INTERIOR MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N87W BEYOND
TALLAHASSEE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KHHV...KVAF...
KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...KVQT...KGHB...KEIR...KSPR...KGRY...
KMDJ...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND
SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES TO HUNTSVILLE. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL PLAINS...AND AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
MISSISSIPPI...MVFR CONDITIONS IN PASCAGOULA.  AND HEAVY
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER. ALABAMA...VFR CONDITIONS. FLORIDA...
IFR IN APALACHICOLA...AND TALLAHASSEE WITH NEARBY LIGHTNING.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

A BROAD AREA OF WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY...IN THE AREA OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW...AND ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 15N FROM
80W EASTWARD...AND FROM 13N SOUTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF
BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
29/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.41 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...FROM 600
MB TO 800 MB...AND FROM 350 MB TO 500 MB.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
IN LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND
FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. WESTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA ON DAY ONE. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD... FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TO HISPANIOLA. SOUTHWEST-
TO-WEST WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES NORTHWEST WIND FLOW AT THE
END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...AND THEN NORTHEAST WIND FLOW...WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE WILL
BE ALONG 28W...BETWEEN 42W AND 72W. EXPECT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST
WIND FLOW TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BEYOND
30N60W.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 28N50W. THE
TROUGH LEADS INTO A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N50W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN
48W AND 56W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 29N22W...TO A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N30W...TO 28N47W...AND TO A 1026 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N64W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES FROM
30N64W TO NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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