[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 281153
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON DEC 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA...FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. EXPECT ALSO SEA
HEIGHTS TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN GALE-FORCE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...A COLD FRONT IS ALONG
30N92W 25N93W 21N97W. EXPECT NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH GALE-FORCE WINDS
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF 94W...AND WEST-TO-
NORTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTH OF 27N. EXPECT SEA
HEIGHTS TO RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 12 FEET. THE AREA OF GALE-FORCE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE
WEST OF 95W...IN ABOUT 9 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF CAMEROON
NEAR 03N10E...TO 03N06W...CURVING TO 07N13W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG
01S17W 03S22W 03S30W 03S37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 06N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN
TEXAS INTO MEXICO NEAR 19N99W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL LOUISIANA...TO
25N93W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N...
TO 22N100W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N92W
25N94W 23N97W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KBBF...KBQX...
KGVX...KXIH...KEMK...KGUL...KVQT...KATP...KGRY...KVOA...
KMIS...AND KDLP.

IFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...K9F2...KAXO AND
AND KXPY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR CONDITIONS REMAIN FROM THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN
AREA TO HUNTSVILLE. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN THE LAKE CHARLES
METROPOLITAN AREA. IFR CONDITIONS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
COASTAL PLAINS...ALREADY LISTED IN THE OIL PLATFORM SITES
SECTION. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MISSISSIPPI...IFR CONDITIONS AND
HEAVY RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER. ALABAMA...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
FLORIDA...MVFR AND LIGHT RAIN FROM MILTON TO PENSACOLA. IFR IN
MARY ESTHER AND VALPARAISO. MVFR IN DESTIN AND CRESTVIEW. IFR IN
SARASOTA. MVFR IN PUNTA GORDA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM NORTH CENTRAL COASTAL HISPANIOLA TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...AND 600 MB TO
800 MB SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ELONGATED AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT
IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ELONGATED AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
28/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.31
IN CURACAO...AND 0.08 IN GUADELOUPE.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...THE LAST
OBSERVATION FROM 28/0100 UTC SHOWED FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.
FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL
CLOUD CEILING...MVFR CONDITIONS...IS IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO JAMAICA...BEYOND THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF CUBA.
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BY THE END OF DAY
ONE. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO HISPANIOLA DURING DAY
TWO... EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER WILL BE ABOUT 420 NM TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA ON DAY
ONE. EXPECT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA ON DAY
ONE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD AND BE ABOUT 600 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA
AT THE END OF DAY TWO. EXPECT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW DURING
DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE WILL BE
ABOUT 700 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N15W TO 24N20W TO 12N32W.
THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH
33N17W TO 30N16W AND 27N17W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE EAST OF
22N17W 15N24W 12N34W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N11W
23N20W 18N40W 19N60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 25N24W...TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N42W...TO A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 30N54W...BEYOND 32N76W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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