[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 30N89W TO 24N91W TO
18.5N95W. NORTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT
S OF 20N W OF 95W WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATLANTIC.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO START AGAIN ACROSSALONG THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA 0N 30/0300 UTC FROM 11N-12NBETWEEN 73W-76W
WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGHSEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FORMORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EQUATOR AND THE PRIME
MERIDIAN TO 01N07W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 01N07W TO 0N14W TO 04S30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA AT 04S39W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM S MISSISSIPPI AT
30N89W TO 24N91W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 18.5N95W. A GALE IS
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEE ABOVE. EAST OF FRONT...15-25 KT SW
RETURN FLOW REMAINS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF W OF 90W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS
MOSTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANDANLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. A GALE IS FORECAST TO START
AGAIN ON 30/03Z. SEE ABOVE. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR LOW LEVEL TRADEWIND SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...AND
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUIGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N24W TO 29N30W TO 31N39W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1028 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 27N29W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 30N12W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO
27N15W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE NE OF THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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