[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON DEC 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA...FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. EXPECT ALSO SEA
HEIGHTS TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET TO 14 FEET. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN GALE-FORCE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. PLEASE
READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...A COLD FRONT IS ALONG
29N93W 25N95W 23N98W. EXPECT NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH GALE-FORCE WINDS
TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT...AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET
TO 12 FEET. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF CAMEROON
NEAR 03N10E...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 02E...TO 02N06W...TO 01N09W.
THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 01N09W TO 03S25W...TO THE
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 42W AND
50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM
60W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
INTO MEXICO NEAR 20N99W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
HAS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING
THE LAST 6 TO 9 HOURS. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH EASTERN
TEXAS...THROUGH THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST...TO 25N95W IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO...TO 22N100W IN MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KGVX...
KGLS...KXIH...KVAF...KGUL...KVQT...KATP...KGRY...KEIR...
AND KMIS.

IFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KGHB AND FOG...
KDLP...AND KXPY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...LIGHT RAIN FROM VICTORIA/PORT LAVACA/PALACIOS TO THE
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS FROM BAY CITY TO THE
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...IFR IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR AND
RECENT LIGHT RAIN. LOUISIANA...IFR CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAIN IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. MVFR AND SOME IFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
MISSISSIPPI...IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT RAIN IN GULFPORT.
ALABAMA...IFR CONDITIONS. FLORIDA...IFR AND POSSIBLE LIFR
CONDITIONS IN THE PANHANDLE FROM CRESTVIEW-DESTIN LINE WESTWARD.
LIGHT RAIN NEAR MILTON.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM NORTH CENTRAL COASTAL HISPANIOLA TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND...AND 600 MB TO 800 MB
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE ELONGATED AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT
IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ELONGATED AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
28/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.31
IN CURACAO...AND 0.08 IN GUADELOUPE.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...THE LAST
OBSERVATION FROM 28/0100 UTC SHOWED FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.
FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE LAST OBSERVATION FOR BARAHONA
FROM 28/0000 UTC SHOWED FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. A LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO JAMAICA...BEYOND THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF CUBA.
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BY THE END OF DAY
ONE. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO HISPANIOLA DURING DAY
TWO... EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER WILL BE ABOUT 420 NM TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA ON DAY
ONE. EXPECT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA ON DAY
ONE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD AND BE ABOUT 600 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA
AT THE END OF DAY TWO. EXPECT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW DURING
DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE WILL BE
ABOUT 700 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N19W TO 26N20W TO 13N31W.
THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N16W TO 27N16W AND 26N18W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
IS TO THE EAST OF 23N17W 17N23W 10N34W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N13W 24N18W 19N30W 20N50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 26N17W...TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N38W...AND TO 28N43W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 30N45W 2753W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 29N53W...TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N61W...TO 30N66W...AND BEYOND 32N77W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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