[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH AMERICA AND A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED E OF BERMUDA SUPPORTS
GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN FROM
11N-14N BETWEEN 73W-77W. SEAS TO OF 11 TO 16 FT ARE OCCURRING
IN THIS AREA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL
28/1200 UTC. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING OVER THE NW GULF AND AS OF 27/2100 UTC
EXTENDS FROM 29N96W TO 26N97W. THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EXPECT
NORTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS TO THE W OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS TO 10
FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE SW GULF
BY 0600 UTC MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2...FOR THE SECTION THAT IS CALLED...AGADIR.
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS AREA NE OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 04N06E
TO 01N04W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 03N10W TO
01S20W TO 00N30W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 02S45W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER W TEXAS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
FROM 29N96W TO 26N97W. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT.
MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN S TO SE FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF E OF
THE FRONT. STRONG TO GALE FORCE NW WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND IN 24 HOURS WILL EXTEND FROM SE
LOUISIANA TO NEAR 18N94W OVER THE SW GULF. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE E OF THE
FRONT...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SW GULF OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT W OF THE FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT AND MONDAY W OF THE FRONT AWAY FROM THE
LOCATIONS UNDER THE GALE WARNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES N OF THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FRESH
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE OTHER
PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER
THE BASIN DUE TO A LACK OF FORCING AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND TRADE WIND FLOW
ARE EVIDENT IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE
ANTILLES...JAMAICA...AND THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE
CARIBBEAN AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND HELPS TO WEAKEN THE ATLC RIDGE SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A REDUCTION IN WINDS OVER THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO JUST BELOW
GALE FORCE.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN TRADE WIND FLOW SUPPORTS SHOWERS OVER
HISPANIOLA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORM
FORMATION. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N62W WITH
A BROAD AXIS THAT DOMINATES THE WESTERN ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 31N42W TO 28N52W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH
THIS TROUGH. FARTHER EAST...A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
27N41W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 20N14W TO 26N18W.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NE OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE E OF N FL/GA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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