[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271714
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA AND A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED E OF
BERMUDA INFLUENCING THE SW NORTH ATLC. GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN ARE OCCURRING FROM 11N-14N
BETWEEN 73W-79W WITH SEAS TO 18 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL 28/1200 UTC. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON 27/2100 UTC
FROM 29N95W TO 24N98W. EXPECT NORTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS TO 12 FT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2...FOR THE SECTION THAT IS CALLED...AGADIR.
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS AREA NE OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01N AT THE
PRIME MERIDIAN TO 02N10W TO 01N20W TO 01S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-03N BETWEEN 08W-17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER S TEXAS. 15-25 KT SW RETURN FLOW
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER W TEXAS
NEAR 31N103W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT OVER TEXAS. A BAND OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER E TEXAS WHILE THE GULF OF MEXICO
HAS MOSTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 09 HOURS FOR THE COLD
FRONT TO BE OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH A GALE NW OF FRONT. SEE
ABOVE. EXPECT  IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S
MISSISSIPPI NEAR 30N89W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W WITH
CONVECTION. 15-20 KT SW WINDS WILL PERSIST SE OF FRONT OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE 20-30 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR LOW
LEVEL TRADEWIND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
BELIZE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 16N70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N65W.
ANOTHER 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N39W. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N15W ACROSS
THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 23N20W TO 21N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. METEO-FRANCE IS CALLING FOR
GALE CONDITIONS E OF FRONT N OF 30N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO DIP S INTO THE AREA NEAR 30N
OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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