[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271203
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA...FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. EXPECT ALSO SEA
HEIGHTS TO RANGE FROM 12 FEET TO 17 FEET. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN GALE-FORCE IN ABOUT 30 HOURS. PLEASE
READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/ FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE 15-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 29N95W TO
24N98W. EXPECT NORTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE FRONT. EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS TO RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 12 FEET.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2...FOR THE SECTION THAT IS CALLED...AGADIR.
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS AREA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GABON NEAR
01N10E...TO 02N07E. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 02N07E...TO 02N02W
AND 02N06W...TO 01N10W 03N18W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG
26W... TO 02S38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 02N BETWEEN 14W
AND 18W...AND FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS IN THE MIDDLE OF
TWO AREAS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
MEXICO TO TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
NORTHWESTERN CUBA...AND EVENTUALLY TO EASTERN HONDURAS. SOUTH-TO-
SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE IN TEXAS...MOVING EASTWARD
WITH TIME.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KGVX...
KGLS...KEMK...KGUL...KVQT...KGRY.....KIKT...AND KMIS.

IFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KMZG...KBBF...
KBQX...KXIH...KHHV...KVAF...KGHB...KHQI...AND KDLP.

...FROM THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...INCLUDING CROSSING HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM HISPANIOLA...TO 15N75W...TO THE
COASTAL BORDER OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
NORTHWESTERN CUBA...TOWARD FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 12N69W
15N66W BEYOND 18N60W....ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB IS FROM
10N TO 15N BETWEEN 63W AND 72W.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
IN PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN SANTIAGO.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM PUERTO RICO INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW AT THE START OF DAY ONE WILL BECOME NORTH-TO-NORTHWEST WIND
FLOW BY THE END OF DAY ONE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND
LOSE ITS IDENTITY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. A RIDGE WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
THE TROUGH ONLY WILL COVER THE NORTHEASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO WITH A RIDGE. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START ON DAY ONE ABOUT 600
NM TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL
MOVE SOUTHWARD AND IT WILL END UP BEING ABOUT 420 NM TO THE
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA BY THE END OF DAY TWO. WESTWARD FIRST AND
THEN SOUTHWARD DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE WILL BE ALONG 30N
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. EXPECT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW TO
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO AND
THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 24N18W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 11N34W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST OF
11N34W 20N20W...BEYOND 32N08W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-
WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 18N60W 20N50W AND
16N40W...TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THAT IS NEAR 11N34W. THE
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N16W...ACROSS
THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 24N20W...TO 23N23W
AND 22N30W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 22N30W TO 22N40W
AND 22N46W. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE PART OF THE METEO-
FRANCE MARINE FORECAST ARE AND/OR HAVE BEEN RELATED TO THIS COLD
FRONT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N13W 24N20W
19N34W 19N60W.

A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N39W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM THE COLD
FRONT TO 32N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.

A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N64W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 51W AND THE EASTERN COAST OF THE U.S.A.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net