[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 270604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA...FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. EXPECT ALSO SEA
HEIGHTS TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN GALE-FORCE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. PLEASE
READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/ FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE 24-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 29N93W TO
25N95W TO 23N98W. EXPECT NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH GALE-FORCE WINDS TO
THE WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS TO RANGE FROM 8 FEET
TO 12 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24
KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2...FOR THE SECTIONS THAT ARE CALLED...
IRVING...IN THE EASTERN PART OF MADEIRA...AND IN AGADIR. GALE-
FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GABON NEAR
01N10E...TO 01N06E...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 01E. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM THE EQUATOR ALONG 01E TO 01S04W...TO THE EQUATOR
ALONG 10W...TO 02N18W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 28W...TO 01N40W...
TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 45W...TO 01S48W IN THE BAIA DE MARAJO OF
BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 12W AND 16W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 02S
BETWEEN 32W AND 36W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 24W AND 28W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE WEST OF 30N87W 24N90W 18N95W. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE IS TO THE EAST OF THE 30N87W 18N95W LINE. MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS ARE BETWEEN 93W AND 101W...IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND
COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS AND MEXICO...TO THE EAST OF A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM MEXICO TO TEXAS AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N80W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 29N86W...TO 27N89W...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW IS IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE IN
TEXAS...MOVING EASTWARD WITH TIME.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KGVX...KXIH...
KGLS...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...KATP...KEIR...KIKT...AND KMIS.

IFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KMZG...KBBF...
KBQX...KHHV...KVAF...KGHB...KGRY...KEIR...AND K9F2.

LIFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KDLP AND KXPY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR...LIGHT RAIN FROM ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON TO PARTS OF
THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN GENERAL. IFR
AND LIFR CONDITIONS AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MISSISSIPPI...
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG. LIGHT RAIN IN GULFPORT. ALABAMA...IFR
AND SOME MVFR CONDITIONS. FLORIDA...A MIXTURE OF LIFR/IFR AND
SOME MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN NEAR MILTON FROM CRESTVIEW-DESTIN LINE
WESTWARD.

...FROM THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...INCLUDING CROSSING HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW IS ALONG A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST LINE...FROM 18N71W AT
THE TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO 13N76W...TO THE COASTAL
BORDER OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA.

EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB COVERS THE
AREA THAT RUNS FROM PUERTO RICO TO NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 17N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 80W.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE ELONGATED AREA OF
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...FROM 80W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF
12N70W 15N80W...FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM 79W WESTWARD...AND
ELSEWHERE FROM 80W WESTWARD...IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 12N69W
15N66W BEYOND 18N60W....ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB IS FROM
10N TO 15N BETWEEN 63W AND 72W.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND LA ROMANA. LIGHT RAIN IS
BEING REPORTED IN PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING AND A
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTIAGO.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
IN PUERTO PLATA.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N19W TO 27N21W 19N25W
12N33W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 10N...TO THE EAST OF 31N10W
21N20W 10N35W...AND IN AFRICA BETWEEN 10W AND THE COAST.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH
OF 18N60W 20N50W AND 16N40W...TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THAT IS
NEAR 12N33W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N16W...ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO 25N20W...TO 23N25W AND 22N30W. THE COLD FRONT IS
DISSIPATING FROM 22N30W TO 23N40W AND 23N45W. THE GALE-FORCE
WINDS THAT ARE PART OF THE METEO-FRANCE MARINE FORECAST ARE
RELATED TO THIS COLD FRONT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N14W 24N20W 19N34W 18N60W.

A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N40W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE COLD FRONT TO
32N BETWEEN 30W AND A 33N47W 31N48W 29N50W SURFACE TROUGH.

A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N64W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 19N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 53W AND THE EASTERN COAST OF THE U.S.A.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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