[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS BETWEEN AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND A NORTHERN COLOMBIA LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS HELPING TO SUPPORT GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA...FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. EXPECT ALSO
SEA HEIGHTS TO RANGE FROM 11 FEET TO 16 FEET. PLEASE READ THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2...FOR THE SECTIONS THAT ARE CALLED...IRVING
AND THE WESTERN HALF OF MADEIRA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECASTFOR THOSE AREAS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 04N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND
07W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N07W TO 04N20W 03N23W 04N26W AND
02N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 02N TO
08N BETWEEN 22W AND 31W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM
10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH EAST TEXAS...TO THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...
TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N97W TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 17N95W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE FOLLIWNG SITES...KMZG...KGVX...KGUL...
KHQI...KVQT...KGHB...KGRY...KATP...KIKT...KMIS...

IFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KBBF...KBQX...
KXIH...KGLS...KHHV...KVAF...KEMK...

LIFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KBVE AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR IN THE LOWER VALLEY. MVFR AND LIFR WITH
RAIN/DRIZZLE/FOG IN THE MIDDLE GULF COAST PLAINS. MVFR AND IFR
FROM THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA TO THE BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR
AREA. LOUISIANA...IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS.
MISSISSIPPI...LIFR CONDITIONS. ALABAMA...LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS.
FLORIDA...LIFR WITH LIGHT RAIN AND FOG FROM TALLAHASSEE WESTWARD.

...FROM THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...INCLUDING CROSSING HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW FROM 350 MB TO 500 MB AND
FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR  TO
13N74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
80W EASTWARD...IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW 350 MB TO 500 MB AND FROM 600 MB TO 800
MB COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 81W
WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF AREA OF LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THE 13N74W CYCLONIC CENTER. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W WESTWARD.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF
12N69W15N64W 17N60W. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING FROM
VENEZUELANORTHEASTWARD...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEANSEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW FROM 350 MB TO 500 MB AND FROM 600
MB TO 800 MB BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
26/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.26 IN
GUADELOUPE.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AT 26/0100 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND LA ROMANA. SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN SANTIAGO. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AS LONG AS THE CURRENT 13N74W CYCLONIC CENTER IS TO THE SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA. THE CYCLONIC CENTER IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN ALONG A
NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH. NORTHEAST-TO-NORTH WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START ON DAY ONE ABOUT 600 NM TO THE
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL MOVE
WESTWARD FIRST AND THEN SOUTHWARD DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
RIDGE WILL BE ALONG 30N FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. EXPECT EAST-TO-
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N25W TO 23N27W AND
16N31W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO
THE SOUTH OF 12N69W 17N57W 18N43W 16N30W 27N14W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO 26N30W
25N40W 28N51W. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE PART OF THE METEO-
FRANCE MARINE FORECAST ARE RELATED TO THIS COLD FRONT.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 30N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 19W AND 30W...AND WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LINE 30N23W 26N27W 25N35W 25N50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 32N53W TO A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N63W...32N73W...BEYOND THE COASTAL BORDER
OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH WESTERN ALGERIA NEAR 28N08W...TO
23N17W...ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 16N30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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