[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260623 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2015

UPDATED THE FOLLOWING SECTIONS...SPECIAL FEATURES...
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...FROM 10N TO
14N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. EXPECT ALSO SEA HEIGHTS TO RANGE FROM
12 FEET TO 17 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/
FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE 48-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO CONSISTS OF A COLD
FRONT FROM 30N94W TO 24N95W TO 22N98W. EXPECT NORTHWEST GALE-
FORCE WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO THE NORTH OF 25N. EXPECT
SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 12 FEET. PLEASE READ THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2...FOR THE SECTIONS THAT ARE CALLED...IRVING
AND THE WESTERN HALF OF MADEIRA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GABON NEAR
01N10E TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 04E. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THE
EQUATOR ALONG 04E TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 05W...04N18W 0N39W...
CURVING TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 47W...AND TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 01S48W NEAR THE BAIA DE MARAJO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 01N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 33W AND 37W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 06N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 37W...AND FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 39W
AND 44W.
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 05N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 08W AND 30W.

WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N
BETWEEN 25W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THAT ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER...FROM 24N SOUTHWARD FROM
89W WESTWARD.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 30N81W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS FLORIDA TO 29N87W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 26N92W AND
23N95W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KMZG...
KGVX...KGUL... KHQI...KVQT...KGHB...KGRY...KATP...KIKT...KMIS...

IFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KBBF...KBQX...
KXIH...KGLS...KHHV...KVAF...KEMK...

LIFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KBVE AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR IN THE LOWER VALLEY. MVFR AND LIFR WITH
RAIN/DRIZZLE/FOG IN THE MIDDLE GULF COAST PLAINS. MVFR AND IFR
FROM THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA TO THE BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR
AREA. LOUISIANA...IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS.
MISSISSIPPI...LIFR CONDITIONS. ALABAMA...LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS.
FLORIDA...LIFR WITH LIGHT RAIN AND FOG FROM TALLAHASSEE WESTWARD.

...FROM THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...INCLUDING CROSSING HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW FROM 350 MB TO 500 MB AND
FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR  TO
13N74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
80W EASTWARD...IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW 350 MB TO 500 MB AND FROM 600 MB TO 800
MB COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 81W
WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF AREA OF LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THE 13N74W CYCLONIC CENTER. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W WESTWARD.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF
12N69W15N64W 17N60W. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING FROM VENEZUELA
NORTHEASTWARD...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW FROM 350 MB TO 500 MB AND FROM 600
MB TO 800 MB BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
26/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.26 IN
GUADELOUPE.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AT 26/0100 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND LA ROMANA. SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN SANTIAGO. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AS LONG AS THE CURRENT 13N74W CYCLONIC CENTER IS TO THE SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA. THE CYCLONIC CENTER IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN ALONG A
NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH. NORTHEAST-TO-NORTH WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START ON DAY ONE ABOUT 600 NM TO THE
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL MOVE
WESTWARD FIRST AND THEN SOUTHWARD DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
RIDGE WILL BE ALONG 30N FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. EXPECT EAST-TO-
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N25W TO 23N27W AND
16N31W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO
THE SOUTH OF 12N69W 17N57W 18N43W 16N30W 27N14W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO 26N30W
25N40W 28N51W. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE PART OF THE METEO-
FRANCE MARINE FORECAST ARE RELATED TO THIS COLD FRONT.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 30N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 19W AND 30W...AND WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LINE 30N23W 26N27W 25N35W 25N50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 32N53W TO A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N63W...32N73W...BEYOND THE COASTAL BORDER
OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH WESTERN ALGERIA NEAR 28N08W...TO
23N17W...ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 16N30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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