[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252343
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA AND A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
BERMUDA INFLUENCING THE SW NORTH ATLC. NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE
WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN ARE OCCURRING
FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 72W-79W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01N AT THE
PRIME MERIDIAN TO 01N06W TO 04N22W TO 02N40W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR
46W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO
06N BETWEEN 18W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF BASIN REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 29N89W. THIS TROUGHING
IS GENERATING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE N OF 29W BETWEEN
90W-94W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NW GULF THIS EVENING. STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEYS AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ADVECTS NORTHEASTWARD.
OTHERWISE...THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY
A 1031 MB HIGH ANCHORED NEAR BERMUDA CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH E-SE WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE W OF 90W AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG
COLD FRONT TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT OVER A MAJORITY OF THE BASIN THIS EVENING RESULTING IN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE PRIMARY MARINE IMPACT TO THE CARIBBEAN
IS THE STRONG TO OCCASIONAL NEAR GALE TRADES OCCURRING AT THIS
TIME DUE TO A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOWER
PRESSURE ACROSS NW SOUTH AMERICA AND A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA. GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA AS MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION. OTHERWISE...BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE SW NORTH ATLC
RIDGING IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE EASTWARD RELAXING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT AND DECREASING THE TRADES INTO FRESH
TO STRONG BREEZE LEVELS.

...HISPANIOLA...
DRY AIR AND STABILITY ALOFT ARE PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR
CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ANCHORED NEAR 27N74W. THE RIDGING ALOFT SUPPORTS A STRONG 1031
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF THE SW NORTH AND CENTRAL ATLC WATERS THIS EVENING.
THE PRIMARY IMPACT FROM THE ANTICYCLONE IS STRONG WINDS WITHIN
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY DUE TO A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE REGION ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE FOUND GENERALLY FROM
14N-24N BETWEEN 52W-75W. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH ANTI-
CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS N OF 24N W OF 50W. ELSEWHERE...THE
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS AS WELL...
HOWEVER A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 35N27W
TO 18N38W THAT IS SUPPORTIVE OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
32N25W TO 27N35W TO 28N49W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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