[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222339
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE DEC 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW
PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS
THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 73W-78W. SEAS OF 12
TO 15 FT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA. THE GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 03N10W TO 03N02W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM 03N02W TO
07N20W TO 04N30W TO 02N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 04N-10N AND E OF 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN N OF 25N
WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY REMAINING E OF 95W. AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD TO N FL
REACHING THE GULF TO NEAR 21N93W. THIS SUPPORTS LIGHT TO
MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS W OF 90W AND
MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SE WINDS OVER THE GULF E OF 90W. A
SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING
FROM 23N97W TO 20N96W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE
TROUGH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE BASIN THEREFORE...CONVECTION IS STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE N GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS NE FROM THE EPAC REACHING THE W
CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 19N81W. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND EXTENDING ITS AXIS S
ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO NEAR
11N83W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS E CUBA AND THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AT THIS TIME WHILE SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES GENERATING
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
MAINLY E OF 75W. A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE S-
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE
FOR DETAILS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS W OF THE ISLAND SUPPORTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SHALLOW MOISTURE
TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE E CARIBBEAN AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING OVER THE
ISLAND. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR
21N72W. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS BETWEEN 63W-70W. A BROAD
1037 MB HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN CENTERED NEAR
35N41W WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. S OF THIS HIGH...A
STATIONARY FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM 28N60W TO 31N35W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO
DISSIPATE. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE OFFSHORE N FL AND GA AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE SE US.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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