[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230536
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE
ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE
WINDS ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 73W-
77W. SEAS OF 11 TO 15 FT ARE EXPECTED. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THIS AREA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. FOR MORE
INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N06E TO 04N05W TO 05N14W. THE
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N14W TO 05N30W TO 04N40W TO THE COAST
OF S AMERICA NEAR 00N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 160 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 18W AND
37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SERIES OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE SUBTROPICAL
JET STREAM FLOW CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SW TO NE FROM TX TO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...SUPPORTING A COUPLE DIFFERENT CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE GULF FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 82W
AND 87W...AND WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23N98W
TO 29N91W. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM A 1038 MB
HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC TO THE S US SUPPORTING MAINLY
MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N88W TO 18N91W. NO DEEP CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY SUPPORTING CONVECTION WILL SHIFT N OF THE GULF
RESULTING IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
OVER THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BASIN IS CURRENTLY FREE FROM DEEP CONVECTION. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NW
COLOMBIA SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

DRY AIR IS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE NE GULF SUPPORTS SHOWERS
OVER THE SW N ATLC N OF 25N W OF 74W TO THE FL COAST. AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N33W
TO 28N45W TO 28N61W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS
FRONT. ELSEWHERE...A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N44W DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE STATIONARY
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE N BAHAMAS
AND OFFSHORE N FL AND GA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO
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