[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 221804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE DEC 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA...FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W. EXPECT
ALSO SEA HEIGHTS TO RANGE FROM 11 FEET TO 16 FEET. PLEASE READ
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 03N
TO 03N02W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N02W TO 02N08N 07N19W
04N29W 04N32W AND 03N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN
15W AND 25W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN
11W AND 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE TROUGH SHOWED UP IN THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER WIND
PASS...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG
23N98W 19N96W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF
26N93W 27N88W 28N83W BETWEEN 83W AND 93W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF
27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...
KGVX...KGLS...KGUL...KHQI...KVQT...KGRY...AND KSPR.

IFR CONDITIONS ARE AT...KVAF...KVBS...KIKT...AND KVOA.

LIFR CONDITIONS ARE AT...KXIH...KMDJ...AND KDLP.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS
OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE LOWER VALLEY OF
TEXAS.

LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREA...AND IN
BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR IN TEXAS. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE IN
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS/COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. RAIN AND IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
BEING REPORTED IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PANAMA CITY
WESTWARD. RAIN IS FOUND BETWEEN PERRY AND APALACHICOLA AND
MARIANNA. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FOUND IN THE TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG
METROPOLITAN AREA.



...FROM THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...INCLUDING CROSSING HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN 23N73W ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THAT IS NEAR MAYAGUANA IN THE
BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 16N78W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF A
RIDGE THAT IS ALONG 65W/66W FROM 22N SOUTHWARD. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THAT IS RELATED SOLELY TO THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...IS APPARENT IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF WESTWARD-MOVING BROKEN LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE FROM 73W EASTWARD. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 23N
TO 26N BETWEEN 66W AND 74W. EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE TROUGH...FROM 800 MB TO 600 MB.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
22/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.31 IN
TRINIDAD...0.30 IN KINGSTON JAMAICA...0.19 IN GUADELOUPE...
0.04 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.02 IN CURACAO.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO
DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN PUNTA
CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH
WILL MOVE EASTWARD A BIT DURING DAY ONE...ENDING UP EXTENDING
FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO AS THE TROUGH BECOMES ORIENTED
ALONG A MORE EAST-TO-WEST LINE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500
MB SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
WILL BE ABOUT 700 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA.
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL END BEING EASTERLY WIND FLOW AT THE
END OF DAY ONE. EXPECT EASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR DAY TWO...WITH THE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINING STATIONARY. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ABOUT 750 NM TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. EXPECT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW FOR DAY TWO...WITH THE CONDITIONS REMAINING PRETTY MUCH THE
SAME.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 28N46W AND
22N48W. IT APPEARS THAT THE TROUGH MAY CURVE TOWARD THE 16N46W
MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO 31N34W.
THE FRONT IS STATIONARY FROM 31N34W TO 30N40W 28N50W AND 28N60W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IN THE AREA THAT IS BOUNDED BY 32N40W 26N50W 21N54W
28N70W 30N70W 32N40W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N46W. THIS
FEATURE IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
THAT IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
LAYER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N09W IN MOROCCO...TO A 24N14W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN THE WESTERN SAHARA...TO
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT WITH THE TROUGH.

A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1038 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
35N44W...TO 35N55W...TO BERMUDA...30N78W...TO FLORIDA NEAR
APALACHICOLA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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