[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221130
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE DEC 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE
ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE
WINDS ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 72W-
77W. SEAS OF 11 TO 15 FT ARE EXPECTED. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THIS AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. FOR MORE
INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N19W TO 05N30W TO 04N40W TO THE
COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 00N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 13W AND 25W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 06W BETWEEN 25W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SERIES OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE SUBTROPICAL
JET STREAM FLOW ARE PROPAGATING SW TO NE FROM TX TO THE OHIO
VALLEY...SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 27N
BETWEEN 84W AND 95W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD RIDGING ANCHORED BY
A 1037 MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS
WESTWARD TO N FL TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N90W. THIS SUPPORTS
MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SE WINDS OVER THE GULF E OF 90W...AND
LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS W OF
90W. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N90W TO
17N92W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THE PRESENCE OF DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE
SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE S US WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PERIODS
OF CONVECTION MAINLY N OF 27N OVER THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
TO EASTERN CUBA TO HONDURAS...SUPPORTING MAINLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 80W AND 87W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NW
COLOMBIA SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 69W AND 78W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

DRIER AIR HAS SPREAD OVER HISPANIOLA THIS MORNING WHICH IS
LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N36W TO 29N44W...WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 28N50W TO 28N59W. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOTED. AN UPPER TROUGH FROM NEAR 27N68W TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO EASTERN CUBA SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 66W AND 75W...INCLUDING
THE SE BAHAMAS. ELSEWHERE...A 1037 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N47W
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL
ATLC WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
OFFSHORE N FL AND GA AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE SE US.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO
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