[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON DEC 21 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GENERATED BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE
WINDS ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-12N BETWEEN 72W-
75W. SEAS UP TO 17 FT ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA. THE GALE FORCE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N10W TO 04N30W TO 00N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ
AXIS MAINLY E OF 31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN MAINLY N OF 23N SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA. AT LOWER
LEVELS...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS W FROM THE W-CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE GULF. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A GENTLE TO MODERATE
SE FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF W OF 88W WHILE
MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS PREVAIL E OF 88W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE TEXAS COASTLINE ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW
GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS NORTHERN S AMERICA IS
SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN 72W-75W. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES IS
GENERATING LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS ACROSS E-CENTRAL CUBA
TO HONDURAS. CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE
CONVECTION IS  OBSERVED E OF THIS TROUGH AFFECTING E CUBA...THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...JAMAICA...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF
18N AND W OF 74W. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER E-CENTRAL CUBA SUPPORTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HAITI.
THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
THEREFORE...ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A
1036 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N56W. S OF THIS HIGH...A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WAS ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 27N70W TO
26N59W...THEN AS A COLD FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 31N42W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. S OF
THIS BOUNDARY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS BAHAMAS MAINLY S OF 25N BETWEEN 69W-
75W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE
MOVING E WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PREVAIL N OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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