[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191812
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA ON 20/0600
UTC. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM
11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-77W WITH SEAS 11-14 FT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N AND THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO
04N13W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
04N13W TO 04N44W THEN RESUMES FROM 04N47W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA AT 03N51W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM
09N46W TO 01N46W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N
BETWEEN 32W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AT 24N80W TO WEST CUBA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AT 22N86W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ALSO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. CIUDAD DEL CARMEN IN
THE STATE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO IS REPORTING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES.
ELSEWHERE BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN
87W-97W. A 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER ALABAMA NEAR 32N88W. 10-
20 KT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE N OF 26N AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE S OF 26N. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO REMAIN OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AT 22N86W TO BELIZE AT 16N89W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM
NW OF FRONT. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
HONDURAS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 83W-89W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 09N-10N BETWEEN 78W-81W. 15-30 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS N OF
COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N70W. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS S TO
VENEZUELA NEAR 10N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF HISPANIOLA
FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 70W-73W. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BE
SW OF PUERTO RICO IN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PRESENTLY S OF HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS
TO ADVECT OVER E HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N68W TO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM
NW OF FRONT. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 31N18W TO 22N40W TO 22N50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM NW OF FRONT. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS FROM 30N16W TO 24N18W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N42W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC SUPPORTING SURFACE FRONTS. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONTS TO MOVE E.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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